07.28.10 — Earnings Plays – NCL, PNRA, FISV, MEE, HGR, TBL, WBSN, ARW

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Actual Trading  Book on the Earnings plays:

NLC Sell 24.76 2010-Jul-27 15:32:38 25.22 2010-Jul-28 10:15:45 0.46

10:05 am … NCL- SELL Long Position at market – last $25.31: NCL Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.41 per share, $0.07 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.34; revenues rose 19.1% year/year to $1.09 bln vs the $0.99 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY10, sees EPS of to exceed $1.40 vs. $1.43 Thomson Reuters consensus. Including July dispersant sales of $15 million that the co expects will conclude its support of the Gulf crisis response, organic revenues are expected to increase at a high single digit rate for the year. With organic sales up 11 percent on this basis through six months, this means second-half sales are expected to be up mid-single-digits organically.

MEE Sell 29.83 2010-Jul-27 15:30:23 30.30 2010-Jul-28 10:04:20 0.47
TBL Sell 18.35 2010-Jul-27 15:48:54 17.51 2010-Jul-28 09:56:29 -0.84
PNRA100821P00075000 Sell Put Option 1.51 2010-Jul-26 15:32:41 1.55 2010-Jul-28 09:50:06 0.04
HGR Sell 18.26 2010-Jul-27 15:24:17 17.95 2010-Jul-28 09:47:14 -0.31
ARW Sell 24.21 2010-Jul-27 15:37:31 25.20 2010-Jul-28 09:41:52 0.99
FISV Sell 47.75 2010-Jul-27 15:20:50 48.52 2010-Jul-28 09:40:57 0.77
WBSN Cover 21.40 2010-Jul-27 13:03:52 18.55 2010-Jul-28 09:34:33 2.85

9;15 am … MEE -  Continue to Retain Long Position: Stifel Nicolaus notes, last night, MEE reported a 2Q10 loss per share of $0.88, vs. its est of a $0.59 loss per share. Excluding a $128.9 mln charge related to the Upper Big Branch (UBB) mine disaster on April 5, 2010, MEE’s reported loss per share was $0.02, vs. the Street EPS of $0.31 and firm’s $0.44 EPS est. Co’s 2Q10 sales of 9.8 mln tons fell short of its expected 10.7 mln tons, driven by 700,000 tons of lower mine productivity and temporary shutdowns, and 220,000 tons of export shipments in late 2Q10 that were pushed into early July. … FBR Capital Mkts notes the EPS miss was worse than expected but, given the dramatic impact from UBB, is not surprising. More importantly, FBR is reducing its 2010 EBITDA est by 13% to reflect lower production guidance and higher cash operating costs. The co importantly quantified the UBB liability risk of $129 mln, including $62 mln on equipment/sterilized reserves, and unquantified investigation costs/benefits to the miners’ families. Many investors we spoke with were unsure of the amount, and management is providing some clarity, which it appreciates is hard to do at this early stage.

8:24 am … ARW- Retain Long Position: Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.01 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.20 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.81; revenues rose 36.0% year/year to $4.61 bln vs the $4.44 bln consensus. Co issues guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.96-$1.06, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.76 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees Q3 revs of $4.39-$4.79 bln vs. $4.36 bln Thomson Reuters consensus.

8:19 am … WBSN -  Continue to retain Short Position: Websense downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

8:07 am … MEE-SELL Long Position at the market: Revenue totaled $810.1 million, compared with $697.6 million in 2009. The Upper Big Branch mine isn’t likely to reopen in 2010 because of ongoing investigations and damage from the April 5 explosion that killed 29 men. The blast contributed to a second-quarter loss of $88.7 million, or 88 cents per share, in the period. Massey earned $20.2 million, or 24 cents per share, in the same period a year earlier. Massey’s second-quarter results include $128.9 million in pretax charges because of the explosion. Excluding those charges, Massey said it would have lost $1.6 million or 2 cents per share. Massey said it shipped 1 million fewer tons than expected. Analysts expect Massey to earn 33 cents per share in the period.

7:51 am … WBSN – Retain Short Position: Websense Inc.  said its second-quarter net income dipped 6 percent and the Internet filtering and security software maker issued revenue guidance lower than Wall Street was expecting, citing concerns about foreign exchange rates and the overall economy. For April through June, Websense’s net income fell to $3.1 million from $3.3 million in the year-ago quarter. Earnings per share were flat at 7 cents. That figure excludes certain items. Including them, Websense said it earned 31 cents per share.Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had forecast lower earnings of 28 cents per share.

7:10 am ... TBL – Retain Long Position: Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.44 per share, includes items, may not be comparable to the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.34); revenues rose 5.2% year/year to $189 mln vs the $189.5 mln consensus. Results include a $13.2 million non-cash, pre-tax charge for the impairment of certain goodwill and intangible assets.

7:03 am … HGR – Retain Long Position: Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.37 per share, $0.01 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.36; revenues rose 6.4% year/year to $205.8 mln vs the $208.3 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $1.27-$1.29 vs. $1.28 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees FY10 revs of $815-$825 mln vs. $817.38 mln Thomson Reuters consensus.

7:01 am … MEE-SELL Long Position at the market: Revenue totaled $810.1 million, compared with $697.6 million in 2009. The Upper Big Branch mine isn’t likely to reopen in 2010 because of ongoing investigations and damage from the April 5 explosion that killed 29 men. The blast contributed to a second-quarter loss of $88.7 million, or 88 cents per share, in the period. Massey earned $20.2 million, or 24 cents per share, in the same period a year earlier. Massey’s second-quarter results include $128.9 million in pretax charges because of the explosion. Excluding those charges, Massey said it would have lost $1.6 million or 2 cents per share. Massey said it shipped 1 million fewer tons than expected. Analysts expect Massey to earn 33 cents per share in the period.

6:30 am … FISV – Retain Long Position: Reported a quarterly profit above market view, helped by growth in its payments and financial segments. For the second quarter, Fiserv said net income was $127 million, or 83 cents a share, compared with $140 million, or 90 cents a share last year. Adjusted earnings from continuing operations was $1 a share, Fiserv said. Total revenue rose 2 percent to $1.02 billion during the quarter. Analysts on average were looking for a profit of 96 cents a share, before items, on revenue of $1.01 billion.

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