Dartline™ First Look – morning directional planner
March 12, 2010, 7:00 am EST — … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 2.30 to 1148.79, as overseas markets strong — Japan’s Nikkei stock average up 0.8 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 up 0.4 percent, Germany’s DAX index up 0.7 percent, and France’s CAC-40 up 0.5 percent. … The Commerce Department reports on retail sales for February at 8:30 a.m. EST. Dartline predicts retail sales up less than 0.1 percent last month, even though weakness in demand for autos and the severe winter storms that hit much of the country. Earlier this month, the International Council of Shopping Centers reported that sales jumped 3.7 percent in February compared to a year ago, the biggest gain since November 2007, the month before the recession began. … Data from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March on consumer sentiment due at 10 a.m. EST. will show positive signal that consumers’ spending is returning. Indeed, higher consumer spending is vital because it accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity. Economists have cautioned, though, that any spending increases could falter as unemployment weighs on a sustained recovery. The nation’s unemployment rate was 9.7 percent in February. … Meanwhile, bond prices were flat Friday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, was unchanged from 3.73 percent late Thursday. The dollar fell against other major currencies, while gold prices rose. … The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises oil-consuming countries, predicted in its monthly report that oil demand will average 86.6 million barrels a day this year, or 1.6 million barrels a day more than in 2009. Thus, world oil demand will rise this year due to surging economic activity in Asian countries, especially China, the International Energy Agency said Friday as it bumped up its forecasts. “China is currently expected to account for almost a third of global oil demand growth in 2010,” the IEA said. Global oil demand fell 1.4 percent last year compared to 2008, as the Great Recession caused oil demand in OECD countries to drop by the biggest amount since the early 1980s. While oil demand in OECD countries is seen contracting in 2010 for the third consecutive year, growth in developing countries is more than picking up the slack, the IEA said. “This year’s global oil demand growth will be driven entirely by non-OECD countries, with non-OECD Asia alone representing over half of total growth,” the IEA said. This year’s rebound is forecast to be driven by China, where the IEA said preliminary data indicated that demand “surged by an astonishing 28 percent year-on-year in January.” — Toady’s the day —- Even though the market has moved higher with limited volume, go with what the tape is saying. With the S&P 500 index at resistance (1150.41) — maintain Dartline view stated this Tuesday: “Critical next two days as the index will determine near term direction whether resistance holds or not. Meanwhile, trade the market cautiously with a neutral bias.” Tracking volume important factor to determine direction. Stay focused and trade on the noise — “Less bad is the new good.”