… Change near term resistance to 1095.40, while near term S&P 500 tests of 200 ema at 1046.20 will determine direction. A close above 1046.20 is critical to insure upside bias. However, a breakdown would indicate downward move to 991.50. The stock market lost 0.7% last week in volatile trade with selling driven by fears regarding the fiscal situation of several European countries, China tightening its monetary policy and the U.S. employment situation. A large number of companies reported mostly better-than-expected earnings, though their results had a relatively muted impact on trade as investors focused on macro issues. In the end, eight of the 10 sectors fell, though overall losses were contained thanks to some solid gains early in the week and a rebound in late trade on Friday.
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Dartline™ First Look - morning directional planner
stocksmirf
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JB STOCK FUND - 2010. Performance to date
stocksmirf
As of February 5, 2010, 4:00 pm EST … JB STOCK FUND portfolio has unrealized gains of $194.70, and no realized gains or losses. … For the 12-month period ending December 31, 2009, realized gains were $29,240.60 and unrealized gains of $7,054.25, totaling $36,294.8 on invested capital of $17,370, representing 208.95% return.
_________
Are you ready to spend $40.00 a year?
Performance for the week ending February 5, 2010
stocksmirf
Net Portfolio gain including unrealized losses was O.013% based on 42 full cycle transactions, of which 78.% were correct.
Are you ready?
As usual ----
stocksmirf
Stocksmirf was ahead of the bell. Futures up as unemployment rate fell to a five-month low of 9.7 percent, according to a government report on Friday that hinted labor market improvement starting to take root
Dartline™ First Look - morning directional planner
stocksmirf
February 5, 2010, 7:30 am EST … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 7.10 to 1054.20, as traders want a big hug after yesterday’s grim Labor Department report that first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose for the fourth time in five weeks. Meanwhile — today’s the day. The Labor Department’s monthly employment report, due at 8:30 a.m. EST., will determine if fourth-quarter growth has carried into the new year. High unemployment — the jobless rate was 10 percent in December — has been the biggest obstacle to a strong, sustained recovery. Dartline projects employers added 10,000 jobs last month, not the 5,000 predicted by economists, while unemployment remains even at 10 percent. … Ahead of the opening bell, the other focus will be on three members of the euro currency bloc — Greece, Spain and Portugal — which have trouble tightening budget controls to manage mounting deficits. The concern are the events will derail a recovery in Europe. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 1.7 percent, Germany’s DAX index dropped 1.4 percent, and France’s CAC-40 tumbled 2.1 percent. gold prices fell. Oil dropped 3 cents to $73.11 a barrel in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while The dollar strengthened and Treasury bond prices rose. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.59 percent from 3.61 percent late Thursday. … … Keep near term resistance at 1115.49 as near term resistance and support at 1080.50. Take advantage of recent declines by entrancing a prudent, long side bias.
Today's Results
stocksmirf
All realized (full circle) trades for day — Are you ready?
XIDE Feb-03 07:48:31 $ 5.63 Feb-04 06:56:24 $6.08 PROFIT
V Feb-02 07:39:43 $84.27 Feb-04 07:32:30 84.88 PROFIT
UFS Feb-03 12:11:57 52.56 Feb-04 07:36:31 51.65 PROFIT*
CELL Feb-03 09:14:10 6.02 Feb-04 07:38:57 6.35 PROFIT
ALK Feb-04 07:29:28 33.26 Feb-04 07:45:10 31.82 PROFIT*
HAR Feb-03 12:02:01 37.43 Feb-04 07:52:33 36.41 PROFIT*
CREE Feb-04 07:30:29 57.63 Feb-04 07:55:20 57.41 PROFIT*
PNRA Feb-04 07:28:40 74.07 Feb-04 07:57:10 72.70 PROFIT*
PNRA Feb-04 07:40:51 73.55 Feb-04 07:57:10 72.70 PROFIT*
FCX Feb-04 07:49:58 67.90 Feb-04 08:51:56 68.43 PROFIT
FCX Feb-04 08:00:21 67.71 Feb-04 08:52:22 68.35 PROFIT
FCX Feb-04 08:17:26 67.19 Feb-04 08:52:43 68.27 PROFIT
* Shorts
Dartline™ First Look - morning directional planner
stocksmirf
February 4, 2010, 7:30 am EST — The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 6.30 to 1090.13, as Britain’s FTSE 100 down 0.9 percent, Germany’s DAX index down 0.8 percent, and France’s CAC-40 down 0.8 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei stock average finished down 0.5 percent. Investors lack conviction to make big bets as they await new reports on jobless claims, factory orders and monthly retail sales for better insight into the economic recovery. A Labor Department report, due at 8:30 a.m. EST, is expected to show the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits fell last week by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 460,000, according to economists surveyed by Dartline. A separate report from the Commerce Department, due at 10:00 a.m. EST, is expected to show factory orders likely rose for a fourth consecutive month in December. Dartline predicted orders increased 0.3 percent, as other economists predict orders increased 0.5 percent. … Bond prices are up as yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.68 percent from 3.71 percent late Wednesday. The dollar strengthened against other major currencies, while gold prices fell. … … For the S&P 500 index use 1115.49 as near term resistance and support at 1080.50. Trade both sides of the market with neutral bias. Go with the flow and pick on stocks weak fundamentals.
Today's Results
stocksmirf
RL 2010-Feb-02 13:35:36 85.70 2010-Feb-03 07:32:30 80.29 TAKE PROFIT
IRF 2010-Feb-02 13:54:36 19.87 2010-Feb-03 07:41:25 20.71 TAKE PROFIT
AA 2010-Feb-02 08:13:55 13.66 2010-Feb-03 08:01:21 13.77 TAKE PROFIT
MWA 2010-Feb-02 12:26:57 4.83 2010-Feb-03 10:19:12 5.27 TAKE PROFIT
Are you ready?
COVER $RL @ 80.29. Take Profit.
stocksmirf
Closeout position …Take profit on Best Idea posting as confirmed on the Financial Message Board — 2010-Feb-03 07:32:30: COVER RL @ 80.29.
Are you ready?
Are you ready? $RL - last 80.15
stocksmirf
Yesterday’s Pick —-
Best Idea – – SPM+Game Theory 77 SHORT PRO — Projected target price $80.00 – earnings play. 2010-Feb-02 13:35:36: SHORT RL @ 85.70.
Dartline™ First Look - morning directional planner
stocksmirf
February 3, 2010, 7:30 am EST … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 0.20 to 1097.00, as investors want to believe all is well in Stockville. Stocks have rallied the past two days on upbeat reports that show the economy is continuing to rebound. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average ROSE 0.3 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.3 percent, Germany’s DAX index gained 0.1 percent, and France’s CAC-40 rose 0.3 percent. … Indeed, the market retreated last month on concerns the economic recovery wasn’t sustainable and that a strong 10-month stocks rally was running out of steam, and for more signs that the economy’s blistering fourth-quarter growth carried into the new year. The ADP January employment report, due at 8:15 a.m. EST, is expected to show employers cut 40,000 jobs last month, compared with a loss of 84,000 jobs a month earlier, according to economists polled by Dartline. High unemployment remains one of the biggest obstacles to a strong, sustained recovery. The government’s report is expected to show employers added 5,000 jobs last month, but that the unemployment rate rose to 10.1 percent from 10 percent in December. … A report from the Institute of Supply Management, due at 10 a.m. EST, is expected to show the U.S. service sector grew last month. The trade group’s service sector index likely rose to 51 last month from 49.8 in December. A reading above 50 indicates growth. Any signs of growth would provide a welcome reassurance the economy and jobs market are improving. The ISM’s better-than-expected report released Monday on the manufacturing sector helped the market rally after retreating much of the final two weeks of January. … Meanwhile, bond prices fell Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.67 percent from 3.65 percent late Tuesday. The dollar fell against other major currencies, while gold prices rose modestly. … … For the S&P 500 index use 1115.49 as near term resistance and support at 1080.50. Trade both sides of the market with neutral bias. Not the time to be too aggressive. Wait for the market come to you.
Dartline™ First Look - morning directional planner
stocksmirf
February 3, 2010, 7:30 am EST … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 0.20 to 1097.00, as investors want to believe all is well in Stockville. Stocks have rallied the past two days on upbeat reports that show the economy is continuing to rebound. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average ROSE 0.3 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.3 percent, Germany’s DAX index gained 0.1 percent, and France’s CAC-40 rose 0.3 percent. … Indeed, the market retreated last month on concerns the economic recovery wasn’t sustainable and that a strong 10-month stocks rally was running out of steam, and for more signs that the economy’s blistering fourth-quarter growth carried into the new year. The ADP January employment report, due at 8:15 a.m. EST, is expected to show employers cut 40,000 jobs last month, compared with a loss of 84,000 jobs a month earlier, according to economists polled by Dartline. High unemployment remains one of the biggest obstacles to a strong, sustained recovery. The government’s report is expected to show employers added 5,000 jobs last month, but that the unemployment rate rose to 10.1 percent from 10 percent in December. … A report from the Institute of Supply Management, due at 10 a.m. EST, is expected to show the U.S. service sector grew last month. The trade group’s service sector index likely rose to 51 last month from 49.8 in December. A reading above 50 indicates growth. Any signs of growth would provide a welcome reassurance the economy and jobs market are improving. The ISM’s better-than-expected report released Monday on the manufacturing sector helped the market rally after retreating much of the final two weeks of January. … Meanwhile, bond prices fell Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.67 percent from 3.65 percent late Tuesday. The dollar fell against other major currencies, while gold prices rose modestly. … … For the S&P 500 index use 1115.49 as near term resistance and support at 1080.50. Trade both sides of the market with neutral bias. Not the time to be too aggressive. Wait for the market come to you.
Today's Game Plan
stocksmirf
February 2, 2010, 7:30 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index up 3.90 to 1090.20, as European stocks rose for a third day as mining shares rallied the most in two months. … … For the S&P 500 index use 1115.49 as near term resistance and 1080.50. as support. Trade both sides of the market with neutral bias. Tiny Dead Cat Bounce in play after index closed below 80-day moving average.
Day Trader Results for February 1, 2010
stocksmirf
. Take profit – with intent to revisit –2010-Feb-01 08:09:23: COVER CYT @ 36.28.
- SPM+Game Theory 79 SHORT PRO — Projected target price $35.95 . 2010-Feb-01 07:53:29: SHORT CYT @ 36.77.
. Take profit – with intent to revisit — DAY TRADER – 2010-Feb-01 07:48:07: COVER M @ 15.54.
- SPM+Game Theory 77 SHORT PRO — Projected target price $15.10 . DAY TRADER -2010-Feb-01 07:36:10: SHORT M @ 15.65.
stocksmirf
February 1, 2010, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 15.30 to 1089.17, as today’s stock rally was evidence that the bulls are looking for undervalued plays and excuses to buy. Indeed, stock pessimists made a compelling case for a correction even among Monday’s solid gains. Strategists said that while the indexes moved strongly positive, sellers stepped in before the surge got out of control. However, Dartline noted that the Standard & Poor’s 500 has broken below its 80-day moving average for the first time since March 2009, which also marks the oft-cited most recent low for the market and the barometer by which the current rally is measured. This intermediate trendline acted as resistance on rally attempts during the last seven months of the 2007-2009 decline. A crossover above this trendline in March 2009 proved to be a ‘buy’ signal, and pullbacks to this moving average in July and October 2009 were excellent buying opportunities. The index has now closed below its 80-day moving for six consecutive days, and has resisted attempts to close back above it in each of the past five days.
Broad market volatility closed the session lower with equities strongly in positive territory. Market volatility initially moved lower as stock indices opened the first session of February on positive note boosted by the ISM Index reading and dollar weakness. The “fear gauges” have continued to move lower with minimal action in the major averages since midmorning. The VIX closed -1.67 (-6.8%) at 22.95, while the more tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) -1.16 (-4.5%) at 24.63. The CBOE put/call ratio is at 0.76, indicating higher call trading than put trading. (VIX ETF trades under ticker symbol VXX)
Dartline's Commentaries for last 60 days ----
stocksmirf
December 24, 2009, 1:00 pm EST … Special Notice … BTD and Jellybean Trader suspended public operations until February 1, 2010.
BTD and Jellybean Trader will suspend public operations until February 1, 2010. The purpose is to upgrade our proprietary SPM+Game Theory matrix . Even though our cumulative transactions performance for the 12 months ending December 24, 2009 was 89.13%, while the top 50 investment firms rated at 24.92%, SPM is capable of flawless results. We have continued to believe that our collective algorithms were designed and calculated to perform at the maximum 100% accuracy level. Since day-one, back in October 2006, when BTD first published its results, the only objective was to demonstrate that a limited human intervention system had incomparable values over conventional research and investment analysis. During the entire period, we will be implementing and measuring in real time BETA FIVE new or modified filters. Maintain these functions and continually publishing on-line would be economically prohibitive. Accordingly, all open positions will be closed out before December 24, 2009, 1:00 pm EST.**
________
** If you are considering holding open positions to EXIT DATES or current analysis, please advise. BTD and Jellybean Trader will offer projected conclusions .
Main reason for the changeover: Pattern Recognition Option (PRO) addition to matrix.
Pattern Recognition Option (PRO) represents the next level of refinement to our proprietary SPM+Game Theory matrix. Using our currently constituted Subjective Probability Model and the Game Theory algorithms, we have isolated 23 distinct conditions that represent antecedents to consequential assessment guides or patterns. When expressing the additional filters, we are able to solve mathematical anomalies by identifying the greatest common divisors. Once such a particular sequence occurs and set apart, the next event has predictable conclusions. By applying the full scope of SPM+Game Theory matrix to the Pattern Recognition Option, a new value establishes a probable entrance point and conclusion when best to exit the trade. Incorporating the new configuration, the model will be identifies as SPM+Game Theory PRO. … Since the recognizable patterns are not abundance nor can be timely predictable ahead of our pattern recognition milieu, the amount of likely investment or trading candidates are limited. However, the results would be mathematically greater than applying SPM+Game Theory matrix alone. From the beginning — October 5, 2006 – our restricted human intervention investment system has no equal with a net performance rating of 84.59% on 13,110 full circle transaction to November 30, 2009. Applying PRO to the matrix, it is technically possibly to meet our goal of 100% accuracy.
DARTLINE plan to have SPM+Game Theory PRO full operational on February 1, 2010.
December 24, 2009, 7:00 am The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 3.60 to 1118.70, as Japan’s Nikkei stock average rose 1.5 percent, while Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2 percent and France’s CAC-40 rose 0.2 percent. — All the noise on expectations that China will maintain loose monetary policy. Not so, Virginia! Germany’s market was closed for Christmas. … The Commerce Department releases the data at 8:30 a.m. EST on orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods, which should shows moderate rebounded in November. Durable goods orders — items expected to last at least three years, fell 0.6 percent in October and projected to be up 0.2 percent in November. A separate report is expected to show new claims for unemployment benefits increased by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 499,000 the previous week, which pundits expect benefits fell by 10,000. Eventual job growth is considered vital for a strong recovery. The Labor Department’s weekly unemployment report is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST. … The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.74 percent from 3.75 percent late Wednesday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, was unchanged at 0.05 percent. The dollar fell against other major currencies, while gold prices rose. The dollar index is currently down 0.4% at 77.60. Feb gold is up 0.9% at $1103.70 while March silver is up 0.9% at $17.34. Feb crude oil has pared overnight gains and is down $0.20 (or 0.3%) at $76.47; Jan nat gas is up 1.0% at $5.87. … NY Times reports pension funds and insurance companies lost billions of dollars on mortgage-related securities that they believed were solid investments, according to former Goldman Sachs (GS) employees with direct knowledge of the deals who asked not to be identified because they have confidentiality agreements with the firm. Goldman was not the only firm that peddled these complex securities — known as synthetic collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs — and then made financial bets against them. Others that created similar securities and then bet they would fail, according to Wall Street traders, include Deutsche Bank (DB) and Morgan Stanley (MS), as well as smaller firms like Tricadia Inc., an investment co whose parent firm was overseen by Lewis A. Sachs, who this year became a special counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner. How these disastrously performing securities were devised is now the subject of scrutiny by investigators in Congress, at the SEC and at the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Wall Street’s self-regulatory organization, according to people briefed on the investigations. Those involved with the inquiries declined to comment. While the investigations are in the early phases, authorities appear to be looking at whether securities laws or rules of fair dealing were violated by firms that created and sold these mortgage-linked debt instruments and then bet against the clients who purchased them, people briefed on the matter say. … Use primary level of Standard & Poor’s 500 index to the 1157 – 1188 range, while maintaining resistance at 1094.35.
December 23, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 2.57 to 1120.59, as precious metals gained momentum to the upside as the dollar sold off. Meanwhile, personal incomes rose in November at the fastest pace in six months, as spending posted a second straight increase. However, the gains remain too weak to sustain a strong economic recovery. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that personal incomes rose 0.4 percent in November, helped by a $16.1 billion increase in wages and salaries. It reflected the drop in unemployment that occurred last month. The rise in incomes helped bolster spending, which rose 0.5 percent in November. Still, both the income and spending gains were slightly less than economists had expected. After taking inflation into account, after-tax incomes are rising at an annual rate of just 1.2 percent. Economists say the recovery will require higher levels of income and spending. This is especially true at a time when households are using some income to shrink debt loads and rebuild savings, rather than spend. … Benchmark crude for February delivery rose $2.27 to settle at $76.67 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Still, compared with past years demand for fuel remains very weak. Other factors, like the weak U.S. currency have kept energy prices elevated. Because crude is priced in the U.S. currency, investors holding other currencies like the euro can buy more crude when the dollar falls. … Durable goods orders for November, which will be reported at 08:30am EST Thursday, are expected to increase 0.5%. This comes after orders posted a severe 0.6% decline in October. The industrial production data suggest firms are anticipating new orders; however, orders last month did not meet expectations. Manufacturing inventories rose for the first time in months and it remains to be seen if the increase in inventories was due to manufacturers getting ahead of themselves in producing before customers are ready to order. … Underreported: Investors and other idiots are fighting to buy a $1.1 bln package of questionable commercial real-estate loans extended by failed banks, as these once-toxic assets attract growing interest. More than a dozen investors, including Texas banker Andrew Beal, have submitted bids to the FDIC for the portfolio of loans held by Franklin Bank, IndyMac Bank and other failed lenders, according to people familiar with the matter. But the portfolio represents only a fraction of the real-estate loans held by the FDIC and the volume is mounting as more banks fail. The FDIC, which declined to comment on pending transactions, is expected to announce the winning bidder within weeks in what will be its second-largest bulk sale of commercial-property assets since the downturn. The largest deal involved the sale in October of about $5 bln in condominium loans and other property made by now-defunct Corus Bank. Why not, in this country you can package BULLSHIT and sell it for top dollar? As Stocksmirf said, “Bernanke turned cash into trash and forced investors to buy anything but the stuff on the belief that cash is just paper being printed by the ton. So hold your nose and buy stocks and commodities regardless of the underlying fundamentals.”
December 23, 2009, 7:00 am The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 4.10 to 1117.70, as oil prices rose to near $75 a barrel in Asia after a report showed U.S. crude inventories fell last week and a jump in housing sales suggested the world’s biggest economy is picking up speed. Benchmark crude for February delivery was up 36 cents to $74.76 at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 68 cents to settle at $74.40 on Tuesday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said the 12-nation cartel won’t change production quotas, a move widely expected by investors. OPEC leaders called on group members to adhere more closely to current quotas and reduce cheating. Prices were boosted by signs U.S. oil demand may be picking up. U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Crude stocks fell 3.7 million barrels while analysts had expected a drop of 2.0 million barrels. The Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration plans to announce its inventory report at 10:30 am. … MBA Mortgage Applications due 7:00 am EST; Personal Income and Spending 8:30 am EST; Unv. of Michigan Confidence 10:00 an EST); New Home Sales 10:00 am EST. … Use primary level of Standard & Poor’s 500 index to the 1157 – 1188 range, while maintaining resistance at 1094.35.
December 22, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index close up 3.97 to 1118.02, as the the National Association of Realtors said home resales jumped 7.4 percent in November, which was more than the 2.5 percent increase analysts expected. The government’s tax breaks have spurred sales to their highest level in nearly three years. However, NAR failed to disclose that 47% of the sales were “short sale – foreclosures.” Meanwhile, the dollar rose against the euro as investors bet that the U.S. will recover quicker than economies in Europe. And a gauge of the market’s volatility dropped to its lowest point since May 2008. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index, known as the market’s fear index, fell 3.8 percent to 19.72, after earlier falling as low as 16.26. It hit a record 89.5 last October during the height of the financial crisis. … The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, climbed to levels not seen since August, rising to 3.74 percent from 3.68 percent late Monday. The yield on the three-month T-bill rose to 0.08 percent from 0.05 percent. Short-term rates remain low because they are closely tied to interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. The Fed has said it has no plans to alter rates in the coming months. The growing spread between short- and long-term bonds provides further evidence investors are becoming more confident in the economy’s strength. The dollar moved higher against other major currencies. Gold prices fell to their lowest level since early November, while oil prices reversed an early slide and rose 68 cents to $74.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. … Wall Street typically does well in late December. Since 1950, the average return for the Dow during the week leading up to Christmas was 0.7 percent, according to Schaeffer’s Investment Research. And the week following Christmas, the average return was 0.8 percent. The year-end advance is commonly known as a Santa Claus rally. … Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average jumped 1.9 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.7 percent, Germany’s DAX index gained 0.3 percent, and France’s CAC-40 rose 0.7 percent.
December 22, 2009, 2:20 pm … Special Notice … BTD and Jellybean Trader will suspend public operations until February 1, 2010, effective December 23, 2009, 4:00 pm EST.
BTD and Jellybean Trader will suspend public operations until February 1, 2010, effective December 23, 2009, 4:00 pm EST. The purpose is to upgrade our proprietary SPM+Game Theory matrix . Even though our cumulative transactions performance for the 11 months ending November 31, 2009 was 83.73%, while the top 50 investment firms rated at 70.90%, SPM is capable of flawless results. We have continued to believe that our collective algorithms were designed and calculated to perform at the maximum 100% accuracy level. Since day-one, back in October 2006, when BTD first published its results, the only objective was to demonstrate that a limited human intervention system had incomparable values over conventional research and investment analysis. During the entire period, we will be implementing and measuring in real time BETA FIVE new or modified filters. Maintain these functions and continually publishing on-line would be economically prohibitive. Accordingly, all open positions will be closed out before December 23, 2009, 4:00 pm EST.**
________
** If you are considering holding open positions to EXIT DATES or current analysis, please advise. BTD and Jellybean Trader will offer projected conclusions.
… Main reason for the changeover: Pattern Recognition Option (PRO) addition to matrix.
Pattern Recognition Option (PRO) represents the next level of refinement to our proprietary SPM+Game Theory matrix. Using our currently constituted Subjective Probability Model and the Game Theory algorithms, we have isolated 23 distinct conditions that represent antecedents to consequential assessment guides or patterns. When expressing the additional filters, we are able to solve mathematical anomalies by identifying the greatest common divisors. Once such a particular sequence occurs and set apart, the next event has predictable conclusions. By applying the full scope of SPM+Game Theory matrix to the Pattern Recognition Option, a new value establishes a probable entrance point and conclusion when best to exit the trade. Incorporating the new configuration, the model will be identifies as SPM+Game Theory PRO.
Since the recognizable patterns are not abundance nor can be timely predictable ahead of our pattern recognition milieu, the amount of likely investment or trading candidates are limited. However, the results would be mathematically greater than applying SPM+Game Theory matrix alone. From the beginning — October 5, 2006 – our restricted human intervention investment system has no equal with a net performance rating of 84.59% on 13,110 full circle transaction to November 30, 2009. Applying PRO to the matrix, it is technically possibly to meet our goal of 100% accuracy.
We plan to have SPM+Game Theory PRO full operational on February 1, 2010.
December 22, 2009, 7:30 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 6.00 to 1114.20, as international markets continue to climb: Japan’s Nikkei stock average rose 1.9 percent; Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 1 percent, Germany’s DAX index gained 0.3 percent, and France’s CAC-40 rose 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. government will release its final update on economic activity at 8:30 a.m. EST from the third quarter as well. Economists polled by Dartline, on average, forecast the nation’s economy grew at a 3.1 percent annual rate, higher than the most recent estimate. Traders are also awaiting a report that is expected to show sales of existing homes rose to their highest level in nearly three years. Economists predict home sales rose 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.25 million in November, from 6.1 million in October. … A sharp decline in sales and home prices coupled with rising defaults helped push the nation into recession. Any signs of improvement in the market would further boost confidence in the speed of the recovery. The National Association of Realtors’ report is scheduled to be released at 10 a.m. EST. … The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.71 percent from 3.68 percent late Monday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.08 percent from 0.05 percent. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices inched higher. … With the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures above 1,114.11, the index will work higher into the new year. The next primary level should be set to the 1157 – 1188 range. Continue to trade the events, while focusing on the leaders for the best trading opportunities, take profits, reduce laggards and reduce cash position to 15% from 25%.
December 21, 2009, 4:00 am. Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 11.61 to 1114.08 from positive maneuvers on Obama Nation’s health care scheme. However, low volume exaggerated stock swings. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is up 23.5 percent for the year and with FREE MONEY SCHEMES still in-place for the near future, look for the same in 2010. … As stocks rose, bond prices tumbled, pushing yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury not soared to its highest level since August. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average rose 0.4 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 1.9 percent, Germany’s DAX index gained 1.7 percent, and France’s CAC-40 jumped 2.1 percent. … Dollar Index produced a new session three month high to to 78.15, representing a 62% retracement of the July to November slide, while its 200 day ema is at 78.39. … Underreported: Lawmakers are considering a financial-transactions tax that takes aim at Wall Street to help Main Street. Meanwhile, the tax could wind up striking others, too, including pension funds, commodity-dependent businesses, and even ordinary investors. Congressional advocates describe the new tax as a matter of fairness: Taxpayers bailed out Wall Street, so Wall Street must help rebuild the economy and shore up the government’s shaky finances. Some experts say the tax also might reduce market volatility. Supporters say the hit for typical individuals and even most institutional investors is likely to be light, thanks to the tax’s relatively low rates and generous exemptions. The plan would assess a tax on trades in many kinds of financial assets. The rate for stock trades would be 0.25%, or $250 on a $100,000 transaction. The rate would be less—0.02%—for trades of options, futures and other derivatives. … Sentiment indicators — Market volatility declined while equities higher. Broad market volatility end the session lower with equities in positive territory. Market volatility initially gapped lower with strong push higher in equities boosted by overseas strength, minor Dollar Index weakness, a few better earnings/upgrades and some M&A activity. The “fear gauges” have continued to move lower with minimal action in the major averages. The VIX is currently -1.21 (-5.7%) at 20.45, while the more tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) is -0.81 (-3.7%) at 20.96. The CBOE put/call ratio is currently at 0.74, indicating higher call trading than put trading.
December 21, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 1.40 10 1095.40, while trading should be light during the Christmas holiday-shortened week, but that can add to volatility. Markets will be closed Friday. However, trading is likely to be light during the Christmas holiday-shortened week, but that can add to volatility. Markets will be closed Friday. However, economic data throughout the week will keep traders on their toes. The government on Tuesday releases its final report on third-quarter gross domestic product, which measures the total economic output of the country. Economists polled by Dartline predict third-quarter growth was unchanged at an annual rate of 2.8 percent. Data on existing and new home sales are also due out later in the week. Both reports are expected to show sales rose about 2 percent in November. A recovery in the housing market is considered vital to foster a recovery because a collapse in sales and prices coupled with mounting mortgage defaults helped throw the nation’s economy into recession. Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods likely rebounded in November. Orders for durable goods that are expected to last more than three years likely rose 0.5 percent in November, after a 0.6 percent drop a month earlier. The report is due out Thursday. …Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average rose 0.4 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.9 percent, Germany’s DAX index gained 0.7 percent, and France’s CAC-40 rose 0.7 percent. … China’s government is targeting 8 percent growth next year as the global economy recovers, the country’s industry minister said Monday. “Based on the economic growth target of about 8 percent, set by the central government, we aim for industrial output growth at about 11 percent,” said Li Yizhong in a webcast on his ministry’s site. Li’s comment was the first indication of Beijing’s 2010 growth target, a figure that usually is released after the start of the year. The annual target has been set at 8 percent for several years, though growth has exceeded that. Forecasts by private sector economists for China’s economic growth next year range from 9 to 11.9 percent, well above the government target. China’s economy expanded 7.7 percent for the first nine months this year, helped by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package. A government report this month said full-year growth is forecast at 8.3 percent. The World Bank is forecasting 8.4 percent. Li said the world’s economic recovery is still fragile and Chinese exports this year should be 17 percent below 2008 levels. China’s leaders vowed at an annual planning meeting this month to keep economic stimulus and easy credit policies in place. China’s industrial production in the first 11 months of this year rose 10.3 percent from the same period last year. Growth in November alone was 19.2 percent over a year earlier. What China decides, Asia follows. … Meanwhile, bond prices fell Monday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.58 percent from 3.54 percent late Friday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.05 percent from 0.03 percent. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose slightly. … Benchmark crude for January delivery was down 19 cents to $73.17 at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The January contract, which expires later on Monday, rose 71 cents to settle at $73.36 on Friday. In London, Brent crude for February delivery rose 22 cents to $73.97 on the ICE Futures exchange Values are ahead of an OPEC meeting where investors expect the cartel to keep production levels unchanged. Leaders of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have signaled in recent weeks the group doesn’t plan to change output levels at its meeting Tuesday in Luanda, Angola. “The market would be surprised if there was any change to output,” said Clarence Chu, a trader with Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “At near $75, the price is high enough to fund governments and investment, but not so high it damages the global economic recovery.” Iraq took back a remote oil well from Iranian forces over the weekend, a confrontation that briefly sent oil prices higher Friday on investor concerns about a wider conflict. … Use 1,114.11 in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index as primary indicator for direction. Considering that the index set a new low for the week and ended the week in the red in the wake of Wednesday’s rejection from the range top, damage was limited within the five week trading range suggests more of the same. Maintain short support at 1094.35, which will be tested this day. Trade the noise and relax — for now allow the events to come to you.
December 18, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 6.69 to 1102.73, as the day began with a frenzy of buying and selling as several types of options contracts expired. Volatility was also high as several stocks were added to or dropped from the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, a widely used benchmark and the basis for many indexed mutual funds. Stocks had tumbled on Thursday as the dollar spiked on worries about debt problems in Europe. A higher dollar can cut into profits of U.S. companies that do business overseas. Stocks look higher until early next year even as the dollar climbs. A rise in the dollar could crimp profits of U.S. companies but could also signal growing confidence in the U.S. economy. Apparently, the dollar and equities can rally together. … Next week, investors will be looking to reports on home sales, consumer sentiment and demand for durable manufactured goods. Analysts have been looking for clues about the strength of holiday sales since spending accounts for a majority of U.S. economic activity. … Bond prices fell, pushing their yields higher, as investors moved back into stocks following Thursday’s slide. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.54 percent from 3.48 percent late Thursday. Treasuries are continuing their downward move this afternoon with the 10-year yield moving up another couple of bps to approach 3.54% — right in between the high (3.62%) and the low (3.46%) for the week. The 2-to-10-year spread has widened a bit to 274 bps after nearly reaching 275 bps earlier. … Crude oil rose 34 cents to settle at $74.42 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. … Index Change: S&P will make the following changes to the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600 Indices after the close of trading: Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) will replace MBIA (MBI) in the S&P 500. Visa (V) will replace Ciena (CIEN) in the S&P 500, Ciena will replace Blyth (CIEN) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Blyth will replace C&D Technologies (CHP) in the S&P SmallCap 600… S&P MidCap 400 constituents Ross Stores (ROST), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) and SAIC (SAI) will replace Dynegy (DYN), KB Home (KBH) and Convergys (CVG) in the S&P 500, and, likewise, Dynegy, KB Home and Convergys will replace Ross Stores, Cliffs Natural Resources and SAIC in the S&P MidCap 400 index. S&P SmallCap 600 constituents Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) and Atwood Oceanics (ATW) will replace Dycom Industries (DY), Kelly Services (KELYA) and Callaway Golf (ELY) in the S&P MidCap 400, and likewise, Dycom, Kelly Services and Callaway Golf will replace Senior Housing Properties, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters and Atwood Oceanics in the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
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BTD and Jellybean Trader will suspend public operations until February 1, 2010, effective December 23, 2009, 4:00 pm EST.
BTD and Jellybean Trader will suspend public operations until February 1, 2010, effective December 23, 2009, 4:00 pm EST. The purpose is to upgrade our proprietary SPM+Game Theory matrix . Even though our cumulative transactions performance for the 11 months ending November 31, 2009 was 83.73%, while the top 50 investment firms rated at 70.90%, SPM is capable of flawless results. We have continued to believe that our collective algorithms were designed and calculated to perform at the maximum 100% accuracy level. Since day-one, back in October 2006, when BTD first published its results, the only objective was to demonstrate that a limited human intervention system had incomparable values over conventional research and investment analysis. During the entire period, we will be implementing and measuring in real time BETA FIVE new or modified filters. Maintain these functions and continually publishing on-line would be economically prohibitive. Accordingly, all open positions will be closed out before December 23, 2009, 4:00 pm EST.**
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** If you are considering holding open positions to EXIT DATES or current analysis, please advise. BTD and Jellybean Trader will offer projected conclusions.
December 18, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 3.60 to 1097.30, as oil prices rose above $73 a barrel in Asia amid expectations OPEC plans to leave production levels unchanged at its meeting next week. Benchmark crude for January delivery was up 76 cents to $73.41 at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Wednesday, the contract fell 1 cent to settle at $72.65, Traders will be watching closely the output policy decided at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ meeting Tuesday in Luanda, Angola. Leaders of the 12-member cartel have said they would like the price of oil above $70 a barrel and so far signaled they plan to keep production unchanged, while evidence demand for crude and its products is improving. Energy Department data released earlier this week showed U.S. demand for distillates such as heating oil and diesel were at its highest since March due to colder weather and a growing economy, Barclays Capital said. “Distillate demand showed the first signs of inspiration,” Barclays Capital said in a report. “Cold weather should compliment the advent of greater trucking activity, thereby providing a boost to demand.” … More FREE MONEY SCHEMES: Fannie Mae (FNM) is suspending all foreclosure evictions from December 19, 2009 through January 3, 2010. FNM announced that it is suspending all foreclosure evictions from December 19, 2009 through January 3, 2010. All owner-occupants and tenants living in foreclosed properties the company holds will not be subject to evictions during the holiday time frame. The company will also support the efforts of the servicers it works with that are taking similar actions. … Keep 1,114.11 as primary indicator for direction. The failure of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to close above that number in last 7 days and stronger dollar suggests trading pressure to the downside. Loss of momentum and a new three month high in the Dollar Index, overseas declines, weaker than expected claims data all point to a slower pace. Maintain support at 1094.35 as recent range-bound activity makes it prudent to focus on the leaders for the best trading opportunities, take profits, reduce laggards and create a 25% cash position.
December 17, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down 12.58 to 1096.60 (1.13%), as a rising dollar and disappointing corporate forecasts pushed stocks lower and Treasurys higher on Thursday on concerns the economy will struggle to recover. Indeed, the dollar jumped to a three-month high against the euro, a sign of risk-aversion in the market. … The government reported an unexpected rise in unemployment claims last week. The number of new jobless claims rose to 480,000 last week, up 7,000 from the previous week. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose in November for the eighth consecutive month, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said manufacturing in its region rose. … Bond prices rose, pushing yields lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.49 percent from 3.60 percent late Wednesday. The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, rose 1 percent. Gold fell, while crude oil dropped 1 cent to settle at $72.65 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. … Sentiment indicators – Market volatility has jumped to highs of the week with equities lower. Broad market volatility closed the session higher with equities lower on the day. Market volatility initially gapped higher with firmly negative start for equities in wake of new three month high in the Dollar Index, overseas declines, weaker than expected claims data. The “fear gauges” climbed higher as the major averages closed further in the red.
December 17, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 5.90 to 1099.80, as the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 31 points, or 0.6 percent, at 5,289.26, Germany’s DAX fell 28.08 points, or 0.5 percent, to 5,875.35 and CAC-40 in France was 22.32 points, or 0.6 percent, lower at 3,853.50. Earlier in Asia, the Nikkei 225 stock average shed 13.61 points, or 0.1 percent, to 10,163.80, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 264.11 points, or 1.2 percent, to 21,347.63. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1 percent to 1,647.84 and Shanghai’s market tumbled 2.3 percent to 3179.08. Markets in Taiwan, Singapore and Indonesia also fell. Australia’s market bucked the trend, adding 0.2 percent. …Noise from Fed continues to be accessed. Though the Fed reiterated its pledge to keep interest rates near zero, it noted improvements in the economy and detailed the beginnings of a plan to dismantling a number of its extraordinary lending measures in 2010. The news stoked speculation the central bank might increase interest rates sooner than expected, leading many investors to shift back into the dollar and out of stocks. Indeed, low borrowing costs have contributed to a nine-month bull run in stocks and the sharp fall in the dollar this year. Cheap dollars were used to buy potentially higher-yielding assets like stocks, commodities and foreign currencies. Moreover, the dollar rebound confirms that many of The Fed’s liquidity providing measures will be unwound early next year — not true but makes traders nervous. It’s the high unemployment stupid! … The U.S. dollar surged to a three-month high against a currency basket on Thursday, while the euro tumbled on fresh concerns about Greece’s waning fiscal health. In thin pre-holiday liquidity, the euro spun to its lowest against the dollar since early September, picking up pace after breaking strong support at $1.4500 and hitting stop-loss sell orders to take it below the $1.4400 mark. Concerns about fiscal troubles in some euro zone countries gathered pace as Greece suffered the second downgrade of its credit rating in a week on Wednesday. S&P cut its rating one notch to BBB-plus from A-minus. … Oil prices fell, with benchmark crude for January delivery down 36 cents to $72.30. On Wednesday, the contract was up $1.97. … Remain focused on “Near term test is in order for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to close above 1,114.11 and confirms upside bias.” The failure of the index yesterday to close above 1,114.11 and stronger dollar suggest trading pressure to the downside. Use support for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index at 1094.35 as recent range-bound activity makes it prudent to focus on the leaders for the best trading opportunities, while reducing laggards and creating a 25% cash position.
December 16, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index up 1.76 to 1109.65, as Federal Reserve reminded traders that it would end several of its extraordinary supports for the economy in the coming year. Meanwhile, interest rates remain near zero, as the market had expected, but policymakers also noted that weakness in the job market is “abating.” Fed governors made the assessment in a statement following a two-day meeting to ultra-low borrowing costs and FREE MONEY SCHEMES have been a factor behind a massive rally in stocks this year, as well as a weakening of the dollar against other currencies. Money managers are seeking any and all clues about when the Fed may feel the economy is strong enough to tolerate higher interest rates, which will help keep inflation in check. … The government reported that consumer prices excluding food and energy were flat in November, signaling that inflation isn’t working its way into the economy. It was the first time that “core” inflation was unchanged after 10 monthly increases. … Bond prices mostly fell, pushing yields higher, following the Fed’s more upbeat assessment of the economy. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.61 percent from 3.60 percent late Tuesday. Prices had been higher ahead of the Fed’s announcement. The dollar pared an early slide after the Fed said it would begin to wrap up some of its emergency measures. On Tuesday the dollar touched a two-month high against the euro. Gold climbed, while crude oil rose $2.45 to $73.14 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. … Broad market volatility moved lower for the day despite equities upside bias. Market volatility initially gapped lower with strength in equities boosted by slippage in the Dollar Index and slightly better than expected data. The “fear gauges” have moved off their lows of the day as the major averages pulled back following the FOMC statement.
December 16, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 4.80 to 1108.95, while Fed, which concludes its two-day meeting Wednesday afternoon, is expected to hold rates unchanged and maintain FREE MONEY SCHEMES. Elsewhere, the Labor Department is set to report on consumer prices for November, a day after government data showed wholesale prices jumped more than expected. Dartline expects slight increase in consumer prices. … In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 33.19 points, or 0.6 percent, at 5,318.96 while Germany’s DAX rose 72.11 points, or 1.2 percent, to 5,883.45. The CAC-40 in France was 34.40 points, or 0.9 percent, higher at 3,868.49. Banks were in demand in Germany and France, in particular after the Nikkei financial daily reported that global banking regulators plan to delay new capital adequacy requirements for at least 10 years. The proposed requirements were regarded as particularly onerous for Japanese banks but Japan’s Financial Services Agency said there was no agreement in place. Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average bucked the trend as its financial sector was boosted by the report in the Nikkei financial daily. It closed 93.93 points, or 0.9 percent, higher at 10,177.41 — its best finish since Oct. 27. Earlier, most markets in Asia fell, taking their lead from Wall Street Tuesday where investors fretted over the prospect of higher interest rates after a measure of U.S. inflation rose. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 202.18, or 0.9 percent, to 21,611.74 and South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.1 percent to 1,664.24. Australia’s benchmark index lost 0.3 percent after figures showed the economy slowed in the third quarter as the boost from government stimulus spending faded. Taiwan’s market dropped 0.7 percent. China’s Shanghai index slipped 0.6 percent as new share sales absorbed cash and sated buying appetite. China including Hong Kong has outstripped the U.S. in the amount of money raised from stock listings so far this year at nearly $52 billion. … Benchmark crude for January delivery was up 73 cents to $71.42 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, the contract added $1.18 to settle at $70.69. In currencies, the dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 89.57 yen while the euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.4567. … Near term test is in order for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to close above 1,114.11 and confirms upside bias. Yesterday’s decline was limited with the index holding near initial support at 1108.24, while leadership was evident with Energy and Technology sectors gaining momentum.
December 15, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down 6.18 to 1107.93, while Benchmark crude for January delivery added $1.18 to settle at $70.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for January delivery rose 16 cents to settle at $72.05 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Prices headed upward just after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it expected the world would consume 70,000 barrels more crude next year than previous estimates. The 12-nation group, which supplies about 35 percent of the world’s crude, said developing nations would drive demand higher. The International Energy Agency in Paris also predicted late last week that demand was rebounding. That didn’t seem to matter and prices for crude and gasoline continued to fall through Monday, slipping below two-month lows on doubts about how much energy can be consumed during an extended economic downturn. “Oil was looking for an excuse to rally, and they got it with the OPEC report,” analyst Phil Flynn said. “But the market is ignoring the fact that we have an oversupply of everything.” … Oil prices doubled between March to October as investors pumped money into crude futures as a hedge against inflation. Prices have declined from a 2009 high of $82 a barrel, but largely because the dollar has bounced back. The price of crude and the dollar often move in opposite directions, with investors playing one off the other. … Underreported: The National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday its housing market index fell by one point to 16 this month, reflecting concern that job losses and a slow economic recovery will continue to stifle demand for new homes despite the extension of a federal tax credit for buyers. The latest reading is the lowest since June, when it fell to 15. This was also the first monthly decline since October. The worsening outlook was something of a surprise because it came one month after the industry received a major boost from Congress and the Obama administration. New home sales got a lift this year from low mortgage interest rates and an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers. The incentive was set to expire on Nov. 30, but Congress extended it through April and expanded it to include $6,500 for existing homeowners. “This is shaping up to be a bumpy recovery period for the housing market,” said David Crowe, the NAHB’s chief economist. “While some families may be just starting to factor the expanded tax credit into their potential home buying plans, many are hesitating because of the poor economy.” Unemployment dropped slightly in November to 10 percent, from a 26-year high of 10.2 percent. But many analysts expect the rate will continue to climb in coming months. … In the latest survey of builder confidence, the reading for current sales conditions slipped one point to 16. Traffic by prospective buyers stood at 13. And builders’ outlook for sales over the next six months fell by two points to 26. The index reflects a survey of 514 residential developers nationwide. Index readings below 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market. The last time it was above 50 was in April 2006.
December 15, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 3.30 to 1110.81, while the index closing yesterday at 1,114.11, its highest finish since Oct. 2, 2008 suggests further gains. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 39.93 points, or 0.8 percent, at 5,275.41, Germany’s DAX fell 15.25 points, or 0.3 percent, to 5,787.01 and CAC-40 in France was 9.93 points, or 0.3 percent, lower at 3,820.51. However, evolving issues with Greece and Austria, two of the 16 countries that use the euro, are not going to get better. Whether or not a debt crisis can be avoided in Greece remains to be seen, but the whole affair has once more raised questions about the political and structural mechanisms of the eurozone. Meanwhile, the exposure of Austria’s banks to Eastern Europe, where the recession has been particularly acute cannot be denied. On Monday, Austria nationalized Hypo Alpe Adria, a unit of German public-sector bank BayernLB — the move was designed to prevent the bank from sliding into a bankruptcy fueled in part by bad loans, much of them in Eastern Europe. There’s also been noise that other banks may face a similar fate having notched big losses too. Austria’s Die Presse newspaper said the country’s three banking supervisory bodies have put OeVAG, the country’s fourth largest bank, under surveillance. “Just as fears about Dubai fade somewhat, the last thing the market needs is to find a fresh source of worry in the European banking system,” said Kit Juckes, chief economist at ECU Group. Worries last month over state-owned Dubai World’s ability to pay its debts caused jitters about government finances generally, but Dubai’s troubles appear to have eased with a $10 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi. “These banks are not of themselves a huge threat to Austria’s finances but there will naturally be fears about the wider potential for Eastern European losses among European banks and this will just add to concerns about the final extent of the bailout burden for European countries,” he added. … Earlier in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average fell 22.20 points, or 0.2 percent, to 10,083.48 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 271.83, or 1.2 percent, to 21,813.92. China’s main index fell 0.9 percent amid news the government was vowing to clamp down on surging property prices. South Korea’s Kospi was marginally in the green — rising 0.1 percent to 1,665.85 — after flitting in and out of negative territory. However, Australia’s benchmark added 0.4 percent. … Noise from the U.S. Federal Reserve ahead of its rate-setting meeting Wednesday on whether to raise rates — not an issue since FREE MONEY SCHEMES are not going to change until 2012. … Oil prices fell, with benchmark crude for January delivery down 9 cents to $69.42 a barrel, while an ounce of gold slipped 0.7 percent to $1,115.90. … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index finished at its highest level since Oct. 2, 2008 at 1,114.11 confirms upside values remain bullish. Use 1,247.09 a primary resistance, while changing support to 1047.17, last held on October 30, 2009.
December 14, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index close at 7.69 to 1114.10, as fear of global meltdown resolved — Abu Dhabi pumped $10 billion into its indebted Dubai. Abu Dhabi, which controls the UAE’s presidency, has directly and indirectly provided Dubai with $25 billion over the past year, mostly by buying Dubai bonds. In all, Dubai’s known debts are roughly equal to its total economic output last year. The full extent of its liabilities is uncertain, however, with some analysts putting the total at $100 billion or more. The bailout was about more than petrodollar transfers from one United Arab Emirates sheikdom to the other. Dubai officials seized on the news to try to repair damage done by weeks of uncertainty stemming from their unwillingness to fully stand behind Dubai World as the conglomerate looked to restructure some of its $60 billion in debts. Traders cheered the news. Prior to the crisis, most investors had assumed the Dubai government itself, possibly with Abu Dhabi’s help, would guarantee debts amassed by its chief growth engine. Dubai authorities are scrambling to reshape the business hub’s battered image, vowing that the city-state is committed to “transparency, good governance and market principles.” Officials outlined a new legal framework that promised to increase openness and protect creditors in future dealings with the conglomerate, offering lenders succor in a country where formal bankruptcy proceedings are largely untested. “We are here today to reassure investors, financial and trade creditors, employees and our citizens that our government will act at all times in accordance with market principles and internationally accepted business practices,” Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman of the Dubai supreme fiscal committee, said in a statement. Indeed, the bailout bought Dubai, itself saddled with more than $80 billion in debts including Dubai World’s, time it desperately needs. “This is a very significant development,” said Marios Maratheftis, head of regional research at Standard Chartered Bank. “It shows once again there is a one-country approach in dealing with the crisis, which is positive.” The aid package is key for Dubai, which despite its international celebrity has little of the oil wealth held by Abu Dhabi. Dubai’s ruler is the UAE’s vice president and prime minister. However, more questions remain, especially as Dubai works to salvage its reputation and the conglomerate tries to deal with the rest of its debts. … Benchmark crude for January delivery fell 36 cents to settle at $69.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling as low as $68.59. The supply of crude has have back into the spotlight one week before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets in Angola to talk about production. Crude supplies in the U.S. have risen six out of the past 10 weeks because the refiners that convert it into crude have been cutting back on production. There are also reports of a growing amount of oil stored at sea in tankers. Some exporting countries and even large investors choose to keep some oil off the markets until prices improve. That can depress prices, if investors think a lot of oil held off the market could be delivered soon. Yet oil prices have remained stubbornly high, most energy experts say, because those who are still buying it are doing so based on the value of the dollar, rather than actual demand. Because crude is priced in the U.S. currency, investors holding stronger currencies can effectively buy more oil for less money. But demand for fuel in the U.S. has barely nudged from last year, when there were fears of a full-blown depression. Many of those dollar based-trades began to fade at the beginning of December, just when the dollar began to rebound. … Underreported: FACT: 40.7% of all U.S. stock trading is now done by firms that have “naked sponsored access” to markets, the controversial trading practice said to imperil the marketplace, and which faces a regulatory crackdown. Naked access gives trading firms, using brokers’ licenses, unfettered access to stock markets. The firms, usually high-frequency traders, are then able to shave microseconds from the time it takes to trade. From Dartline’s data, naked access accounted for 14% in 2008 and 12.5% in 2007. The SEC is set to make changes to naked access and less risky forms of so-called sponsored access, when it releases a document expected next month. … Sentiment indicators — Market volatility has moved slightly lower with equities closed higher. Broad market volatility ended the session lower with equities in positive territory. Market volatility initially moved lower with continued momentum from second half of last week, overseas strength and news of Mid East bailout boosting equities. The “fear gauges” have continued to move lower as the major averages edged higher through midmorning trade. The VIX is currently -0.86 (-3.9%) at 20.75, while the more tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) is -0.30 (-1.3%) at 22.08. The CBOE put/call ratio is currently at 0.89, indicating higher call trading than put trading.
December 14, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 5.50 to 1108.70 , as Dubai received $10 billion in emergency funds from its oil-rich neighbor Abu Dhabi, helping to ease investor fears that the emirate will default on its debt. In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 51.17 points, or 1 percent, at 5,312.74 while Germany’s DAX rose 55.68 points, or 1 percent, to 5,811.97. The CAC-40 in France was 27.54 points, or 0.7 percent, higher at 3,831.26. Earlier in Asia, most stock markets rose with the notable exception of Japan’s Nikkei, which closed down 2.19 points at 10,105.68 as investor optimism was weighed down by a fairly sluggish Tankan business confidence survey — it showed only a modest fourth quarter improvement and a continued reluctance by firms to ramp up their investments. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 183.64 points, or 0.8 percent, to 22,085.75 and South Korea’s Kospi added 7.87 points, or 0.5 percent, to 1,664.77. Elsewhere, Australia’s benchmark added 0.4 percent, China’s Shanghai’s index was up 1.7 percent and Taiwan’s market gained 0.3 percent. … Oil prices fell again, with benchmark crude for January delivery down 24 cents at $69.63 a barrel, while gold rose 0.5 percent to $1,1250 an ounce. Meanwhile, the dollar fell 0.5 percent to 88.50 yen while the euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.4649. … Dubai said Monday that it has received $10 bln in financing from Abu Dhabi, which will pay part of the debt held by conglomerate Dubai World and its property unit Nakheel. Out of this, $4.1 bln will be used to repay Nakheel’s Islamic bond, or sukuk, that matures Monday. The remainder of the funds will be used to finance Dubai World’s needs up until the end of April 2010. News of the financing sent shares on local stock markets soaring. The Dubai Financial Market’s main index opened up 10% at 1866.82 points with heavyweight Emaar Properties rising 15%. In Abu Dhabi, shares opened up 6.1% at 2772.34 points. Of immediate concern was the repayment of Nakheel’s $3.52 bln bond, seen by many as a litmus test for Dubai’s ability to repay more than $80 bln of government and corporate debt. In a statement on the Nasdaq Dubai, Nakheel said it will repay the bond over the next two weeks “using funds that will be provided by the Dubai Financial Support Fund.” In its statement Monday, Dubai said the U.A.E. central bank will provide support to local banks and that the emirate will focus on addressing the concerns of Dubai World’s creditors and contractors. Dubai also announced a bankruptcy framework in case Dubai World can’t reach agreement with creditors to restructure $26 bln of the conglomerate’s debts. … Use support for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index at 1094.35 as recent range-bound activity makes it prudent to focus on the leaders for the best trading opportunities. Prior resistance at 1113.52 will be tested this week.
December 11, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 4.05 to 1106.41, while crude prices declined Friday for the eighth day in a row. The contract for January delivery gave up 67 cents to settle at $69.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It’s the first time that oil has closed below $70 a barrel since early October. Prices tumbled as the dollar gained strength and investors took a second look at paltry demand figures in the West. The declines came even as the International Energy Agency predicted Friday that global oil demand will rise more than previously anticipated next year. Yet it wasn’t the first such report and analysts are now looking for more concrete signs of demand from both consumers and industry. “How do you know when the economic recovery really begins? It is when real oil demand growth appears,” analyst Phil Flynn said in a report. “Not just artificial demand growth being propped up with smoke and mirrors, but demand growth that comes with solid economic activity and global growth.” The IEA, an energy watchdog for the biggest crude consuming nations, said it raised its estimates for 2010 global oil demand because of increased economic activity in Asia and the Middle East. … The Paris-based organization said in its monthly report that crude demand would reach 86.3 million barrels a day in 2010, up 1.7 percent from 2009. Last month, the IEA forecast oil demand of 86.2 million barrels a day in 2010. Meanwhile, the dollar has surged on a drop in U.S. unemployment and an anticipation that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. Oil contracts, which are priced in U.S. currency, tend to move in the opposite direction of the dollar. The dollar bounced off of 15-month lows to start the month and crude prices have tumbled by $8 per barrel. U.S. consumption of petroleum products including heating oil and diesel, has fallen about 20 percent from a year earlier, Barclays Capital said in a report. “It is really the lack of inspiration in distillate demand that stands out, showcasing the lack of cold weather and no turnaround yet in trucking activity in the U.S.,” Barclays said. … Looking at the ten sectors that make up the S&P 500, they also closed the week mixed. Utilities (+3.6%) led the four gainers, while Financials (-1.6%) led the six decliners. … Following last Friday’s strong session, the greenback continued its rebound this week, at the same time capping any gains in the equity market. Looking ahead to next week, the focus will be on the FOMC policy statement on Wednesday. Investors will once again be looking for a change in the language, specifically if the Fed will continue to expect rates to stay at exceptionally low levels for “an extended period.” A change could help continue the recent rebound in the dollar, but once again that could limit any potential equity market gains. Besides the FOMC, the economic calendar is crowded on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, with PPI and Industrial Production the first day followed by CPI and Housing Starts/Building Permits the next.
December 11, 2009, 7:00 pm … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 5.20 to 1102.50, as Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 1.0 percent, Germany’s DAX index gained 1.1 percent, and France’s CAC-40 rallied 1.8 percent. Japan’s Nikkei stock average was up 2.5 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index up 0.9 percent. News that China’s exports declined last month by the smallest amount this year was the latest evidence that the global economy is rebounding. China’s November exports fell 1.2 percent following a 13.8 percent plunge in October. The report followed government data Thursday that showed a big jump in U.S. exports. Low interest rates and weakening currencies have helped raise demand for goods and services around the globe. … Traders are hopeful that a report on retail sales will show consumers are opening up their wallets this holiday season. Dartline expects retail sales up 0.5 percent last month, slowing from a 1.4 percent increase in October, but will be spun positively to project “better 2010.” The Commerce Department will release the report at 8:30 a.m. EST. However, high unemployment and weak consumer spending are seen as the economy’s biggest obstacles to a robust recovery. … Reports that Obama Nation plans to channel money from the government’s massive financial bailout program to small businesses as part of an effort to limit the political and economic damage of high unemployment. One plan under consideration involves spinning off a new entity from the Troubled Assets Relief Program that would give banks access to federal funds without restrictions, including limits on executive pay, as long as the money was used to support loans to small businesses. But officials are not yet certain whether carving the program out of TARP would be the best way to encourage banks to boost small-business lending, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the plans are not final. As an alternative, officials are prepared to ask Congress to modify TARP itself, easing the pay limits and other restrictions that would be imposed on small-business lenders taking the money. A further example of FREE MONEY SCHEMES to keep the “sugar stock rally” going. … Three versions of the truth. What is your truth? For starters to answer the question —- preconceived ideas often distort the actual truth. Two or more people may look at the same subject and yet see different things. Some look at stocks and see a new bull market as part of a V-shaped recovery. Others look at the same stocks and see a W-shaped recovery. Yet, others look at the same stocks and conclude the worst is yet to come. Since there are so many opinions formed over the same subject, investors can come to one of two conclusions: 1) There is no consistency among the total sum of conclusions, therefore it is impossible to ascertain an outcome with any degree of certainty – investing is basically an arbitrary process. 2) There are certain indicators with a track record of accuracy. Those indicators point towards the real direction without being clouded by preconceived viewpoints. If you have come to the conclusion that investing is an arbitrary process (conclusion No. 1), you should seriously re-examine why you are invested in the first place. If you believe that there exist indicators which allow you to ascertain the market’s direction, you will find it interesting to see what those indicators are and how they should be applied correctly. The first and most important lesson to be learned is that the vast majority of investors (individuals and institutions) are usually wrong, that’s right; wrong. Here’s why: The herding effect – apparent truth. The herding effect could be explained in one sentence: If it’s too apparent, it’s apparently wrong. Herding is a social behavior; in fact, it is a phenomenon that reflects a contagious emotional, collective feeling. This feeling (positive or negative) spreads among investors progressively. If this doesn’t make sense quite yet, hang in there – it will be the single most important contributor to your investment success. Right now the HERDING EFFECT with the full support of the financial media control the direction of the market. As for fundamental values and the true — they do not exist. … Support for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index at 1094.35 will hold. Yesterday’s action confirms upside conclusion — stocks spent the session in a sideways chop, but managed to settle with solid gains. The advance came in the face of modest strength in the U.S. dollar, weakness among financial issues, and a mixed weekly jobless claims report. Trade the market on both sides, take profits, reduce laggards and go with the flavor of the day. Herding effect at work!
December 10, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 6.38 to 1102.32, as a weaker dollar lifted demand for U.S. goods, which become less expensive for foreign buyers when the greenback falls — that was the consensus reason, but as usual WRONG. FREE MONEY SCHEMES will continue to rule. The Commerce Department said a rise in exports helped narrow the nation’s trade gap to $32.9 billion in October. Economists had been expecting an increase. Exports rose 2.5 percent, the sixth straight monthly increase. The trade figures helped offset mixed jobs numbers. The Labor Department said the number of laid-off workers seeking jobless benefits rose more than expected last week to 474,000 after falling for five straight weeks, slightly higher than analysts were expecting. However the four-week average, which is less volatile, fell to the lowest level since September 2008. … In other trading, Treasury prices fell for a second day after an auction of 30-year bonds drew weak demand. The slump in prices for long-dated bonds pushed yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.48 percent from 3.44 percent late Wednesday, while the yield on the 30-year bond rose to 4.49 percent from 4.48 percent. … Gold rose after a four-day slide, while oil fell for a seventh day, losing 13 cents to settle at $70.54 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. … The S&P index was negative for the third session in a row into Wednesday afternoon but was able to stabilize and recover off support at the lower end of its multi-week trading range — the March-Nov rising trendline, 2007-2009 declining trendline, 38% retracement of the Nov-Dec run and its lower Bollinger Band in the 1086/1083 area. The late day push penetrated some short term resistance as well but a more impressive push to close above 1094, and conform underlying support for higher prices.
December 10, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 4.60 to 1100.26, as weaker dollar and hopes for more good news on employment are good excuse to buy paper. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting a report on the number of newly laid-off workers seeking jobless benefits. Dartline expects initial claims for unemployment insurance to have risen last week after dropping for five straight weeks. Unemployment is seen as one of the economy’s biggest obstacles to growth. … Britain’s FTSE 100 was 0.2 percent higher at 5,213.72, Germany’s DAX rose 0.3 percent to 5,664.64 and France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.7 percent to 3,757.39. Investors in Europe awaited the Bank of England’s policy decision, due at 1200 GMT (5 a.m. EDT). The bank was expected to keep its base interest rate at an all-time low of 0.5 percent and leave the size of its 200 billion pounds ($325 billion) asset repurchase program unchanged.In Asia, Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average fell 1.4 percent to 9,862.82. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 0.2 percent to 21,700.04, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.1 percent to 1,652.73. Japan’s core machinery orders, a closely watched indicator of corporate capital spending, tumbled 4.5 percent in October from a month earlier, suggesting that companies are reigning in spending as the recovery in the world’s No. 2 economy slows. Ben Kwong Man Bun, the chief operating officer at KGI Asia Limited in Hong Kong, said uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economy and the financial system, given troubles in Dubai and other countries, were leading investors to book gains from this year’s rally. “All this is a very good excuse to lock in their profits and go on holiday before the end of the year,” he said. “Market sentiment remains relatively cautious.” China’s Shanghai index climbed 0.5 percent. Thailand’s stock market was closed for a national holiday. … Oil prices rose 5 cents to $70.72 a barrel in European trading. The contract dropped $1.95 to settle at $70.67 on Wednesday. … Maintain support for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index at 1094.35. Consistent with recent trading, action in the index would continue to be mixed and lacked clear direction. While index struggled to hold new highs for 2009 in recent weeks, dips have been short and shallow as many market participants continue to step in and provide support as they try to chase the easy gains that have been made since March. Allow the market to come to you, while trading short term situations with a neutral bias.
December 9, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts The Standard & Poor’s 500 index close up 3.88 to 1095.86, as neutral dollar kept volatility on the stock market in check. The ICE Futures US dollar index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, fell less than 0.1 percent. When it falls, the dollar makes commodities cheaper for foreign buyers and increase profits for U.S. companies that do business outside the U.S. The dollar has risen this week against other major currencies, interrupting a steady drop since March. The greenback has fallen as investors take advantage of cheap financing to invest in riskier, higher-yielding assets like stocks and commodities. Signs that the economy is improving have cut into demand for safe-haven investments. … The Commerce Department reported that businesses added to inventories at the wholesale level in October after a record 13 straight months of reductions. Traders hope it is a sign that businesses will soon start restocking store shelves. Wholesale inventories rose 0.3 percent in October; economists had expected a 0.5 percent drop. Meanwhile, the mortgage applications report was encouraging as it showed an increase of 8.5% from the prior week, with low financing rates spurring a 4.0% jump in the purchases index and an 11.1% spike in the refinancing index. … Treasurys fell — the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.42 percent from 3.39 percent late Tuesday. … Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average fell 1.3 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.4 percent, Germany’s DAX index and France’s CAC-40 each lost 0.7 percent. … Benchmark crude for January delivery gave up $1.95 to settle at $70.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped as low as $70.13 a barrel earlier in the day. The Energy Information Administration said the nation’s consumption of petroleum products fell to its lowest level since the week of July 10. Demand for gasoline in the U.S. has been hit so hard by the economic downturn, imports are falling away and helping to drive up the amount of unused fuel in storage. Imports over the past four weeks are down 1.4 million barrels a day compared with last year. That is significant because a gallon of gas was well below $2 per gallon at this time last year, meaning little incentive to ship gas to the U.S. As a result, more than 7 million barrels of gasoline have been pumped into U.S. stockpiles in the past three weeks, according to the EIA report. “We’re expecting consumption to return with the (economic) rebound, but so far we’re not seeing it,” said Andrew Lebow, senior vice president and broker at MF Global. The EIA report also showed U.S. crude supplies dropped last week, though that is typical toward the end of the year as refineries cut down on their inventories. In London, Brent crude for January delivery fell $2.80 to settle at $72.39 on the ICE Futures exchange. … Sentiment indicators — Market volatility moved lower when equities recouping losses. Broad market volatility ended the session lower with equities in positive territory (SPX +3.8). Market volatility initially moved higher as stock indices opened on a mixed/weaker and slipped lower. The “fear gauges” have since moved lower as the major averages recouped early losses. The VIX -0.92 (-3.9%) at 22.77, while the more tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) -1.31 (-5.3%) at 23.49. The CBOE put/call ratio is at 0.95, indicating higher call trading than put trading. (VIX ETF trades under ticker symbol VXX)
December 9, 2009, 7:30 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 5.50 to 1095.40, as U.S. dollar resumes its decline. Commodities prices rose as the weaker dollar made them more attractive to foreign buyers. Silver and copper prices were up , while gold hovered at $1,143 an ounce. Oil prices jumped $1.03 to $73.65 a barrel in electronic premarket trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.The ICE Futures US dollar index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, fell 0.4 percent. The rise in futures followed a sharp sell-off in shares on Tuesday that carried over into Asia overnight as concerns about foreign debt loads escalated. Moody’s Investor Service, a major rating agency, has warned that the U.S. and Britain are at risk of having their ratings downgraded if they don’t get their finances under control, while Fitch downgraded its rating on Greece. Shares in Europe were slightly weaker in late morning trading there. Meanwhile, traders are taking advantage of cheap financing this year to invest in riskier assets like stocks and commodities that have the potential to earn better returns than cash. … Dartline projects that businesses will reduce wholesale inventories for a record 14th consecutive month in October, but are looking for sales to grow. Rising sales will eventually encourage businesses to restock shelves and boost production, which would help boost the broader economy. … Underreported: The U.S. government’s $700 billion bailout program helped stabilize the financial system, but has done little to boost lending or stave off millions of home foreclosures, a government watchdog group said on Wednesday. In its new monthly report on the TARP, the Congressional Oversight Panel declined to take a stand on whether U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner should extend the program beyond the end of 2009. The 14-month-old bailout fund, which has propped up banks, automakers and insurer AIG (AIG), has failed to resolve key problems in the financial system, including toxic assets still weighing down bank balance sheets, a sharp contraction of credit and the moral hazard associated with bailouts, the panel said. “Consequently, the United States continues to face the prospect of banks too big to fail and too weak to play their role adequately in keeping credit flowing throughout the economy. The foreclosure crisis continues to grow,” the panel said in its report. The report concluded that the stability that markets have enjoyed this year was not solely due to TARP, but to an extraordinary mix of government support, including FDIC and Federal Reserve asset guarantees. “The removal of this support too quickly could undermine the economy’s nascent stability,” it said, without concluding whether Geithner should continue the program through October 2, 2010. Meanwhile, Bloomberg.com reports Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner plans to tell Congress that the Obama administration will extend the $700 billion financial-rescue program until next October, according to people familiar with the matter. While the Troubled Asset Relief Program expires on Dec. 31, Geithner can extend it by notifying Congress. A letter notifying Congress of the extension could come as soon as today, said the people, who declined to be identified. Andrew Williams, a Treasury Department spokesman, declined to comment. The TARP, passed in October 2008 to prevent a collapse of the financial system, has drawn criticism from Congressional opponents of taxpayer-funded bailouts of banks including Citigroup Inc. The Obama administration, preparing the ground for an extension, has emphasized that the program may also be used to aid homeowners and small companies. … Support for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index at 1094.35 was challenged yesterday to close at 1091.94 on the rally in the temporary US Dollar. At this point the index has retraced 40% retracements off the November reaction low. Therefore, the next test to confirm further weakness in the index would be 1074.50, representing the 50-day exponential and simple moving averages values. Key on last week’s low Put/Call ratios. Low readings are associated with extreme call buying or bullishness, which is often a contrarian indicator. The struggle to close above the 3-week range highs has clearly been taking its toll on majority of stocks. Meanwhile, sentiment/breadth indicators like the Advance/Decline line and Up/Down Volume are approaching their respective “oversold” zones. Downside pressure for the index will be limited as the current support zone since the FREE MONEY GAME is not over and the dollar has only one way to go — down.
December 8, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down 11.36 to 1091.89, as safe-haven assets like the dollar and Treasurys are the flavors of the day. Traders sent the dollar and Treasury prices higher in response to the negative economic news. Commodities fell as the dollar rose. Bond prices rose, sending yields lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.39 percent from 3.43 percent late Monday. The ICE Futures US dollar index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, rose 0.7 percent. A stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for buyers overseas, and hurts profits at companies that have large international operations. … Reports in Britain and Germany signaled that manufacturing remains weak, while Japan’s government approved $81 billion in stimulus measures to keep its economy out of recession. Credit rating agencies warned about debt problems in Dubai and Greece. … With the Standard & Poor’s 500 index up 63.1 percent since early March, why not take profits? … Crude oil fell $1.31 to settle at $72.62 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. … Gold for February delivery dropped $20.60 to $1,143.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange for a third straight day Tuesday as a stronger dollar gave investors an excuse to take more profits. Indeed, the dollar has been rising, pushing commodities lower, since late last week when a better-than-expected employment report gave investors a strong positive signal on the economy. That could mean an end to the record low U.S. interest rates that have weakened the dollar and driven up the price of commodities this year. After surging to a new record of $1,227.50 last week, gold prices have fallen about $75 since Friday. Most analysts, however, see the decline in gold as temporary, saying there is enough investment demand for the metal to support higher prices over the long term. “We haven’t given up on the rally,” said Dave Meger, director of metals trading at Vision Financial Markets. Meger said he’s used the recent strengthening of the dollar as an opportunity to book some profits in gold, which had surged more than $200 in just three months. Even with the decline over the past few days, gold prices are still up 29.3 percent for the year. That compares with a year-to-date gain of about 21 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Moreover, stocks and commodities have rallied this year as record-low interest rates drive investors to look for alternative investments to the greenback. A weaker dollar makes commodities more attractive to foreign buyers. Gold has benefited from the greenback’s decline more than some commodities because it is seen as a good hedge against a weak dollar. Other metals also declined Tuesday as the ICE Futures US dollar index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, rose 0.6 percent. March silver tumbled 55.3 cents to $17.807 an ounce, while January platinum declined $4.20 to $1,440.40 an ounce. March copper futures fell 4.4 cents to $3.165 a pound. Elsewhere on the Nymex, oil prices fell for a fifth straight day, hurt by the stronger dollar, as well as reports from Britain and Germany showing manufacturing remains weak, a bad sign for energy demand. On the Chicago Board of Trade, March wheat futures shed 8.25 cents to $5.3975 a bushel, while corn for March delivery added 1.25 cents to $3.85 a bushel. January soybeans fell 9 cents to $10.44 a bushel. Other soft commodities, including sugar, cotton and cocoa, fell. … Sentiment indicators — Market volatility has moved higher with equities making fresh December lows. Broad market volatility to end the session higher with equities lower on the day (SPX -11.31). Market volatility initially moved higher as the major averages opened on a negative note with gains in the Dollar Index and cautionary Moody’s comments about the U.S. debt rating. The “fear gauges” have since remained in tight range as equities probe lows. The VIX is currently +1.44 (+6.5%) at 23.53, while the more tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) is +0.97 (+4.1%) at 24.66. The CBOE put/call ratio is currently at 0.89, indicating slightly higher put trading than call trading. (VIX ETF trades under ticker symbol VXX).
December 8, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 7.00 to 1096.40, as the dollar is stronger against other major currencies, while bond prices are higher. Overseas, Asian markets are lower and European shares are mixed. Commodities are little changed. Traders want answers on where the economy is headed in 2010 and how best to position their portfolios for next year. With little economic data to drive trading, the market is likely to drift as it did on Monday when stocks finished little changed. … Oil prices dropped below $74 a barrel Tuesday in Asia after a strengthening U.S. dollar extended a four day sell-off in crude to two-month lows. Benchmark crude for January delivery was down 6 cents to $73.87 at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.54 to settle at $73.93 on Monday. The dollar, boosted by a better than expected U.S. jobs report last week, helped push oil prices out of a two-month range of between $75 and $82. Traders have been buying crude as a hedge against inflation as the dollar has slid this year amid massive government stimulus spending and low interest rates. When the dollar rises, traders tend to sell their positions in oil. “The movement of the dollar has continued to be a leading driver of oil pricing,” said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. “But when the price falls to the mid-$70s, many market participants see that as a buying opportunity.” In Asian trade, the dollar was mixed. The euro fell to $1.4805 from $1.4820 in New York late Monday while the dollar fell to 89.04 yen from 89.49. In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.01 while gasoline rose 0.54 cent to $1.94. Natural gas jumped 7.0 cents to $5.04 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, Brent crude for January delivery rose 22 cents to $76.65 on the ICE Futures exchange. … Moody’s Investors Service today downgraded all six Dubai government-related issuers (GRIs). This rating action follows recent comments and statements from government officials, which cause us to believe that no meaningful government support should be assumed for any entity that is not directly part of or formally guaranteed by the government. As a result, Moody’s has reduced the government support assumptions for all six issuers. All ratings now reflect the respective company’s stand-alone credit profile (baseline credit assessment) with the exception of Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (DEWA) and DIFC Investments, whose revised ratings include one notch uplift for government support recognizing their stronger strategic linkage to Dubai’s core economic development policies. Moody’s has also downgraded various baseline credit assessments to reflect (1) increased liquidity challenges in a tougher financing environment that we expect will continue for a protracted period, and (2) the longer term implications thereof on Dubai’s economy. … Keep support at 1094.35 and resistance at 1113.52 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Use opportunity to take profits and reduce laggards. Keep your powder dry until the dollar runs out of steam. Remain defensive as the index tests 1094.35 and how it reacts to that number. Maintain a short side bias.
December 7, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down 2.78 to 1103.22, as Helicopter Bernanke said in a speech before an economic group that forces like unemployment and tight credit will hold the economy to “moderate” improvements — Which means? “Don’t worry! FREE MONEY is alive and well. Interest rates will remain a near zero for the long term.” Treasuries danced during Bernanke’s speech as the good news/bad news comments got reactions from both sides. The fact that he acknowledged, in jest, that rates cannot go much lower was not news to anyone, came on top of his repeating rates will remain low for an extended period, again, nothing new. His muted cheerleading was limited to the system was rescued “from the brink,” there will be modest growth in the year ahead and they are working on exit strategies. The timing of a move to rate tightening remains a mystery, or in his words, “challenge,” as inflation could move lower (although it’s effected by numerous “crosscurrents”) and joblessness improve. Yet, the glow from Bernanke’s noise caused to drift while the carry trade continues to unwind. … Benchmark crude for January delivery fell 2 percent, or $1.54, to settle at $73.93 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level in about two months. Energy experts say that at some point, fuel prices are going to have to rise or crude prices are going to have to fall. It’s been the latter in recent days and the rebounding dollar may be the best ally that motorists have right now. The dollar traded higher than it has for a month against the euro Monday and crude prices fell sharply, demonstrating how much heft the dollar has in energy markets. Oil is bought and sold largely in dollars and this year the dollar has taken a beating compared with currencies like the euro. That has allowed investors holding euros and other stronger currencies to buy a lot more oil for less and they have. While that has driven the price of crude higher, the same cannot be said for gasoline because the demand isn’t there. That is why energy experts believe something’s got to give. With the crude falling as the dollar rises, that may finally be happening. … Consumers that want to get an early indication of where the price of gasoline, diesel and other fuels are going in the coming weeks might want to watch the movement of the dollar. The rising dollar on currency exchanges could mean more bang for the buck on your pocket at the gas station. In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil fell 1.71 cents to settle at $2.0097 and gasoline slipped 3.44 cents to settle at $1.9406. Natural gas jumped 38.5 cents to settle at $4.971 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, Brent crude for January delivery lost $1.09 to settle at $77.53 on the ICE Futures exchange. … Underreported: FT said Big European banks are likely to be forced to cut their balance sheets or use a large proportion of their profits to build up capital, according to a new analysis of a proposed regulatory limit on total bank borrowing. With the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision due to discuss “leverage ratios” this week, analysts at CA Cheuvreux have worked out what would happen if regulators said that a bank’s total balance sheet could not exceed 25 times its equity plus other tier one capital — considered the most likely limit by the banking industry. They concluded that, under this scenario, UBS would face the biggest challenge of all the large European investment banks: having to devote 82% of its profits until 2011 to building up capital or trimming its balance sheet by nearly a quarter. Credit Suisse (CS) and Deutsche Bank (DB) would each have to either use about one-third of their profits or sell assets. Natixis and Deutsche Postbank would be even harder hit and unable to meet the new requirements solely through retaining profits. Neither would Dexia, although it has announced plans to cut its balance sheet.
December 7, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 5.00 to 11.03.11, as U.S. dollar jumped to a five-week high against the euro, sending commodities prices tumbling. Treasurys, meanwhile, bounced back from a sharp sell-off last week, pushing yields lower. Overseas markets were mixed. Whether the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected remains the noise — Dartline projects it will not happen until late 2010 or early 2011. … Indeed, low interest rates and the resulting decline in the dollar have helped fuel the stock market’s nine-month rally. The weak dollar has encouraged investors to buy stocks, commodities and other higher-yielding assets. If the Fed were to raise rates, that would be a good sign that the economy is strengthening. … The ICE Futures US dollar index inched up 0.1 percent. As the dollar strengthened, gold prices dropped $25 to $1,143 an ounce. Oil prices lost 58 cents to $74.89 a barrel in electronic premarket trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Bond prices rose. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.44 percent from 3.48 percent late Friday. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average rose 1.5 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.8 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.6 percent, Germany’s DAX index fell 0.7 percent, and France’s CAC-40 gained 0.9 percent. … All the noise that the economy has improved is based primarily on one set of numbers — November U.S. non-farm payrolls was “better than expected.” But the numbers were misplaced. Temporary workers changed the rules. The idea — the bottoming in the payrolls of temporary workers coincides with an initial peak in the unemployment rate. The theory behind this relationship should have been fairly obvious. When a recession hits, firms continue to worry about future demand even as the economy begins to recover. As current demand begins to rise, firms don’t immediately hire a permanent workforce. Instead, they fulfill their labor needs through temporary works. If demand unexpectedly falls, then firms can inexpensively remove excess labor. However, the consensus seems to have missed this relationship when evaluating where payrolls were headed. Instead of looking at hiring practices, the pundits and the other kind that make up the consensus spent more time evaluating the highly volatile initial and continuing claims reports as the basis for their forecasts. The market will look at the labor recovery as a double-edged sword. On one hand, the drop in payrolls will lessen the decline in aggregate income. This will provide consumers with more potential spending than originally expected and, in return, estimates for consumption for the first half of of 2010 will be revised higher. Firms should experience higher revenues and most likely, higher profits. … Yet, the stabilization in the labor market will also give market participants pause about possible inflation and interest rate pressures. As demand expectations rise due to more current consumption, firms will not only demand more money for business investment, but the increased cash flow will make them more credible borrowers. All of the liquidity that has been pushed to the banks through quantitative easing measures may flow back out into the economy and price pressures will be felt. The rise in business activity will force the Fed into increasing the fed funds rate well before the beginning of 2011, where fed fund futures are currently projecting a rate increase. Long-term yields will start rising in conjunction with the possible increase in rates and everything that is tied to these yields, such as mortgages and credit cards, will become more expensive. … The loss of jobs in the auto manufacturing and real estate sectors was eerily similar. Indeed, the government The loss of jobs in the auto manufacturing and real estate sectors was eerily similar. Other assisted sectors, such as construction and banking, have posted similar results. The fact is, the improvement in the payrolls data was due to the private sector increasing their need for labor output. … In conclusion … The unexpected strength in the payroll data was an anomaly. … Keep support at 1094.35 and resistance at 1113.52 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. The S&P probed its 3-week range top above the November 1113-level, but couldn’t close in higher ground. After Friday’s employment data, the market initially reacted positively at the open, but saw an aggressive distribution throughout most of the day. Overall, strong reversals along new highs doesn’t bode well and suggests a short-term top is at hand. Keep your powder dry until the dollar runs out of steam. Remain defensive as the index tests 1094.35 and how it reacts to that number. Maintain a short side bias.
December 4, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index close up 5.97 to 1105.89 , as BIG LIE played the day like a fifty dollar ball girl. …
“Stocksmirf! Play it again. (As reported at 7:00 am EST.) “If you need to lie — TELL A BIG LIE. It’s easier to believe. Indeed, one of the striking difference between a dead cat bounce and a lie is that a cat has only nine lives. — Dartline’s consensus is that November U.S. non-farm payrolls fell by 129,000, while weakening economic data this week has suggested that the payrolls may decline by 160,000 and the unemployment rate may tick up — will not happen since the numbers are being manipulated to enhance holiday retail sales. Now the BIG SPIN has occurred: A surprising drop in the November unemployment rate and in job losses cheered investors Friday and raised hopes for a sustained economic recovery. The rate unexpectedly fell to 10 percent last month, from 10.2 percent in October, as employers cut the fewest number of jobs since the recession began. The better-than-expected figures provided a rare dose of good news for a labor market that’s lost 7.2 million jobs in two years. The average work week also rose, along with average earnings. And the Labor Department said 159,000 fewer jobs were lost in September and October than first reported. The economy shed 11,000 jobs last month, an improvement from October’s revised total of 111,000, the Labor Department said Friday. That’s much better than the 130,000 Wall Street economists had expected. If part-time workers who want full time jobs and laid off workers who have given up looking for work are included, the so-called underemployment rate also fell, to 17.2 percent from 17.5 percent in October. The average work week rose to 33.2 hours, from a record low of 33 hours. Economists expect employers will increase hours for their current workers before hiring new ones. Drilling into the numbers and you get a different picture: The 7 point difference between the jobless rate and underemployment rate is almost double the usual gap. That’s an indication of how many more people are likely to be looking for work in coming months. Indeed, the economy has now lost jobs for 23 straight months, while the true unemployment number is closer to 17 percent when adding in the individuals who have stopped looking and have become invisible. … As for data confirmation: The National Federation of Independent Business said Thursday that a monthly survey of its small business members showed that more companies plan to reduce employment in the next three months than plan to add jobs. What’s the deal? … The unemployment rate fell because the number of jobless Americans dropped by 325,000 to 15.4 million. The jobless rate is calculated from a survey of households. The number of jobs lost or gained, by contrast, is calculated from a separate survey of business and government establishments. The two surveys can sometimes vary. The unemployment rate also dropped because fewer people are looking for work. The size of the labor force, which includes the employed and those actively searching for jobs, fell by nearly 100,000, the third straight decline. That indicates more of the unemployed are giving up on looking for work. The participation rate, or the percentage of the population employed or looking for work, fell to 65 percent, the lowest since the recession began. Once laid-off people stop hunting for jobs, they are no longer counted in the unemployment rate. … BottomLine — Remain defensive, take profits and trade the noise like its real, but with a jaundice eye.” —- Indeed, if you followed the advise, today would have been a BIG MONEY DAY — Dartline’s portfolio gains for one day was 207% on invested capital. … Gold prices fell off their record highs on Friday, falling 4% after a better-than-expected report about the job market lifted investor confidence. Futures for February delivery slipped $48.80 to $1,169.50 a troy ounce on Friday. This is after gold prices settled at $1,218.30 on Thursday, an all-time high when not adjusted for inflation. This is a direct consequence of a U.S. government bogus report on Friday that showed the unemployment rate fell to 10% from 10.2% and that job losses are slowing down, said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist at commodities brokerage firm Lind-Waldock. This inspired a stock rally and took the wind out of gold prices, which have been on the rise, with little interruption, since surpassing $1,000 on Sept. 8. “The gold market got knocked down because [the Federal Reserve is] going to have to raise rates sooner, because the job market seems to be recovering at a faster clip than was anticipated,” said Klopfenstein. The employment report found the U.S. economy lost 11,000 jobs in November. While any job loss is a negative for the economy, this decline was dramatically smaller than expected and was the lowest job loss since the start of the recession. Gold is a historic repository for funds when times are tough and investors lack confidence in other parts of the market. So gold prices tend to rise when confidence heads south, and the dollar is weak.”The dollar’s up pretty strong today, and when you see a dollar rally, that’s bearish for gold,” said Klopfenstein. But while gold prices hit a record on Thursday, they were still a far cry from their real peak, as measured in dollars adjusted for inflation. Gold hit its summit on Jan. 21, 1980, when it peaked at $825.50 an ounce, in 1980 dollars. That translates to an all-time peak of $2,163.62 an ounce in 2009 dollars. … Market volatility has declined after spiking to three week highs last Friday. The major averages have modestly rebounded from last week’s sell-off. Note the SPX (+1.5%) and the Nasdaq (+2.4%) are outperforming the Dow (+0.7%) this week. Compared to last Friday’s close, the VIX is down 10.5% to 22.24, while the tech-focused VXN has decreased 6.7% to 23.71… The CBOE put/call ratio is currently at 0.84, indicating higher call trading vs put trading.
December 4, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 1.80 to 1099.80, as traders bet that the Labor Department will report an improvement in the nation’s job market, keeping the nation’s jobless rate at a 26-year high of 10.2 percent — apparently not going up is the “new good.” Dartline’s consensus is that November U.S. non-farm payrolls fell by 129,000, while weakening economic data this week has suggested that the payrolls may decline by 160,000 and the unemployment rate may tick up — will not happen since the numbers are being manipulated to enhance holiday retail sales. Though technically out of recession, the U.S. economy has continued shedding jobs and with the employment data in recent months coming in worse than expectations, investors are in jittery mood. … Benchmark crude for January delivery was down 42 cents to $76.05 at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gave up 14 cents to settle at $76.46 on Thursday. Crude prices have hung in the upper $70s for most of the last two months as investors wait for more evidence about how strong the U.S. economic recovery will be. In recent months, demand for oil and products such as gasoline has remained weak. In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil rose 0.63 cent to $2.04 and gasoline gained 0.33 cent to $1.99. Natural gas increased 1.5 cents to $4.47 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, Brent crude for January delivery fell 25 cents to $78.11 on the ICE Futures exchange. … In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 32.63 points, or 0.6 percent, at 5,280.37 while Germany’s DAX fell 39.10 points, or 0.7 percent, at 5,731.25. The CAC-40 in France was 16.53 points, or 0.4 percent, lower at 3,782.58. Earlier in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed down 55.72 points, or 0.3 percent, to 22,498.15, but Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average bucked the trend and ended 44.92 points, or 0.5 percent, to 10,022.59. Elsewhere in Asia, Australia’s market dropped 1.5 percent while Taiwan’s market shed 0.4 percent. However, Shanghai’s market gained 1.6 percent and South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.6 percent after the government said the economy, Asia’s fourth largest, expanded a revised 3.2 percent in the third quarter. That was a better performance than initially estimated thanks to stronger growth in manufacturing, exports and services. … By mid morning London time, trading in the currency markets was fairly subdued, with the dollar down 0.1 percent at 88.14 yen but the euro 0.1 percent higher at $1.5070. Any fluctuations in the dollar later could also impact heavily in energy and commodity markets. Gold was unchanged at $1,217.40 an ounce while benchmark crude for January delivery was down 47 cents to $75.99. The contract gave up 14 cents Thursday. … Keep support at 1094.35 in Standard & Poor’s 500 index, while maintaining resistance at 1113.52. Important factor to determine what will happen at support to insure upside remains undamaged. Play the index ‘close-to-the-vest’ and allow values to come to you.
December 3, 2009, 4:00 am … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index down 9.32 to 1099.92, as the Institute for Supply Management said its index of activity in the service industry fell to 48.7 in November from 50.6 in October, which was below what Dartline had been expecting and clearly signaled new contraction. … Bond prices fell, pushing yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.39 percent from 3.32 percent late Wednesday. The dollar mostly rose against other major currencies, while gold rose. Crude oil fell 14 cents to settle at $76.46 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. … Indeed, the day was misdirected by Federal Reserve Chairman Helicopter Bernanke appeared on Capitol Hill as he seeks to win confirmation for a second four-year term. Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee that he would work with lawmakers to reshape the country’s financial regulatory setup as well as to rein in supports for the economy as a recovery takes hold. What does that mean?— He doesn’t have clue what to do next and was clearly stumbling over his words. … Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.3 percent, and Germany’s DAX index fell 0.2 percent. … Broad market volatility ended the session modestly higher with equities relinquishing early gains. The “fear gauges” have since moved off their lows as equities gave back a portion of gains. The VIX is currently +0.43 (+2.0%) at 21.55, while the more tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) is +0.59 (+2.6%) at 23.17. The CBOE put/call ratio is currently at 0.78, indicating nearly higher call trading than put trading. (VIX ETF trades under ticker symbol VXX).
December 3, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 4.40 to 1112.90, while Labor Department report is projected to show new unemployment insurance claims rose by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 480,000 last week, less than anticipated 30-days before. Indeed, the BIG SPIN is on — whatever the number Wall Street will play the “news” as positive. The previous week’s figure of 466,000 was the lowest total since the week of Sept. 13, 2008. Economists closely monitor initial claims, which are considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs and an indication of companies’ willingness to hire new workers. The report is due Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST. … Claims have steadily declined from a peak of 674,000 this spring. That indicates firings are decreasing, but most economists say weekly claims would have to fall to about 425,000 for several weeks to signal that the economy is actually adding jobs. Some economists put the number higher, around 475,000. The number of people continuing to claim benefits, meanwhile, is expected to drop by about 20,000 to 5.4 million for the week ending Nov. 21. Those figures lag initial claims by a week. However, the continuing claims do not include millions of people that have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government. About 4.2 million people were receiving extended benefits in the week ended Nov. 14, the latest data available. That’s a drop of about 18,000 from the previous week. Congress added 14 to 20 weeks to the extended program Nov. 6, the fourth extension since the recession began and the longest total extension on record. That boosted the total number of weeks a person could collect unemployment to as much as 99 in the hardest-hit states. … But more than 1 million people will run out of unemployment benefits in January unless Congress quickly extends federal emergency aid, a nonprofit group said last month. The November extension didn’t address an underlying problem: The emergency unemployment compensation program, including all additional weeks, expires at the end of this year. If the program isn’t renewed, after Jan. 1 recipients who have used up their 26 weeks of state benefits won’t get any extra coverage, according to the National Employment Law Project. Even as claims are falling and the economy has started growing, the unemployment rate is continuing to rise. It jumped to 10.2 percent in October from 9.8 percent, the highest level in more than 26 years, the government said earlier this month. … At the same time, the economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, which was not as strong as first reported, but still broke a record string of four straight quarterly declines. See! Even Dartline can make the “news” appear better than the data actually declares. Stocks are riding the big wave of money. … Change support to 1094.35 from 1040.80 in Standard & Poor’s 500 index, while maintaining resistance at 1113.52. Market riding a wave of FREE MONEY. Use the tape as the master indicator. Trade the market, reduce laggards, take profits and remain flexible.
December 2, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index close up 0.38 to 1109.24, as the Fed suggested that conditions have generally improved since the last report in late October. (note: See full report under Financial Message Board.) Apparently, the Fed is expected to hold a key bank lending rate at a record low near zero when its meets on Dec. 15-16. Dartline predicts the Fed will keep rates at super-low levels well into next year. Although the jobs market remains weak, the Fed survey found some scattered signs of improvement in some markets. Many manufacturers said they were “optimistic about the near-term outlook.” But makers of construction-related materials were still pessimistic, mostly because of expectations that problems in the commercial real estate industry will be prolonged. In fact, commercial real estate conditions continued to deteriorate, the Fed report said. Most regions were plagued by rising vacancy rates, downward pressure on rents and little, if any, new development. By contrast, the housing market — sales and construction activity — improved across much of the country, according to the Fed survey. A collapse in the housing market, which dragged down home prices, thrust the country into a recession. A sustained turnaround in housing is a key ingredient for a lasting economic recovery. .. . Underreported: Unemployment worsened or stayed the same in most metro areas in October, the Labor Department said Wednesday, as jobs remained scarce nationwide. The report comes a day before the Obama administration is to hold a “jobs summit” at the White House that will gather economists, academics and corporate executives to consider how the government can spur job creation. The jobless rate rose in 162 of the 372 metro areas tracked by the Labor Department. The rate was unchanged in 42 areas. It dropped in 168 areas. In September, unemployment had improved in 223 areas and worsened in only 123. The deteriorating trend mirrors the U.S. unemployment rate, which jumped to 10.2 percent in October from 9.8 percent in September. The metro unemployment data isn’t seasonally adjusted and is therefore volatile from month-to-month. All 372 areas reported higher unemployment rates in October compared with the previous year. The Labor Department is scheduled to release the national unemployment report for November on Friday. Wall Street economists expect it will show the jobless rate was unchanged at 10.2 percent while employers shed 143,000 jobs, according to Dartline. There were 190,000 job cuts in October. Fifteen areas recorded jobless rates of 15 percent or worse in October, the department said, with nine of those in California and three in Michigan. That’s up from 13 areas with rates above 15 percent the previous month. Fresno, Calif., for example, saw its jobless rate soar to 15.8 percent from 14 percent in September. And the rate in Hanford-Corcoran, Calif., jumped to 15.5 percent from 13.9 percent. The areas with the biggest increases in October from the previous month were: Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa, which soared to 8 percent from 5.6 percent; Ocean City, N.J., to 10.6 percent from 8.5 percent; and Sandusky, Ohio, to 10.9 percent from 9.5 percent. The largest improvements were in: Lawrence, Kan., where the rate fell to 4.7 percent from 5.4 percent; Ames, Iowa, to 4 percent from 4.5 percent; and Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass., to 7.9 percent from 8.8 percent. El Centro, Calif., and Yuma, Ariz. posted the nation’s highest jobless rates of 30 and 23.5 percent, respectively. The two adjacent counties are heavily agricultural and have many seasonal farm workers. Bismarck, N.D., recorded the nation’s lowest rate, at 2.8 percent, followed by Fargo and Grand Forks, N.D., both at 3.5 percent. … Globe and Mail reports Gold prices are currently high and markets should be careful of a potential asset bubble forming, a senior official at China’s central bank said, as prices for the precious metal hit a record high. “We must keep in mind the long-term effects when considering what to use as our reserves,” Hu Xiaolian, a vice-governor at the People’s Bank of China, told reporters in Taipei, when asked if China had plans to increase its gold holding in its foreign exchange reserves. “We must watch out for bubbles forming on certain assets, and be careful in those areas.” … Underreported: International Monetary Fund said that it doesn’t expect to have to provide emergency funds to help Dubai weather the debt crisis of its flagship Dubai World conglomerate. “We do not anticipate that there’s any need for any kind of financial support from the IMF,” said Masood Ahmed, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. Ahmed, briefing reporters on the IMF’s preliminary assessment of the situation in Dubai, said the United Arab Emirates as a whole has enough resources to “easily” deal with issues arising from the Government of Dubai’s decision to seek a delay on Dubai World’s debt payments. Noting that the situation is still unfolding, Ahmed said recent announcements from the region have helped reduce the uncertainty that flustered world financial markets last week. He said Dubai World’s announcement Monday initiating engagement with creditors and providing more clarity on the $26 billion in debt effected by the standstill have helped “put boundaries around” the scope of the problem. At the same time, however, he said continued engagement with creditors and investors will be critical to resolving the matter. Ahmed said one “obvious impact” of the crisis would be to hold back economic activity in Dubai, given the significant property dimension of its economy.
December 2, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 1.00 to 1077.10, as traders await a private group’s report on jobs and a Federal Reserve report on regional economic activity. In the first of three straight days of employment reports, the ADP National Employment Report is expected to show 160,000 private sector jobs were lost in November. That would mark the eighth consecutive month of declining job losses, providing further evidence the U.S. economy is recovering. …Benchmark crude for January delivery was down 30 cents to $78.07 at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.09 to settle at $78.37 on Monday. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Crude stocks rose 2.9 million barrels while analysts had expected a drop of 1.3 million barrels, while the Energy Information Administration plans to announce its inventory report later Wednesday. Oil prices broke below $76 a barrel late last week after conglomerate Dubai World said it would delay interest payments on $60 billion of debt. But prices quickly recovered this week as investors were encouraged by signs of improving crude demand in Asia. Crude has traded between $75 a barrel and $82 for more than a month. Prices should remain range bound, while build a substantial base — pattern suggests more strength to follow. Consider buying commodity on drips and underlying plays to run to $100 a barrel by March 2010. … Use 1040.80 in Standard & Poor’s 500 index as support and resistance at 1113.52. Market riding a wave of FREE MONEY and fact cannot be denied. Don’t fight the tape, go with the flow, while keeping short fuse. Reduce laggards, take profits and remain flexible.
December 1, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 13.23 to 1108.86,as the weakening dollar again boosted stocks, a pattern that has played out for months.The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, fell 0.6 percent The cheaper U.S. currency drove up commodities prices and lifted the stocks of energy and materials companies that produce them. Indeed, the drop in the dollar and a move into riskier assets is a sign that traders who jumped out of stocks or rushed into defensive positions are shedding worries of a wider debt problem from the Middle East. … Meanwhile, economic reports were mixed, but still pointed to a strengthening trend in the economy. The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group, said overall manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in November but that new orders rose. That signals activity could pick up in the coming months. Its employment measure grew for the second straight month after sliding for more than a year. … Crude oil rose $1.07 to $78.35 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold rose. …
Underreported: UK manufacturing activity slowed in November as new orders fell sharply, a survey has indicated, casting doubts on the strength of the sector’s recovery. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply (CIPS) index fell to 51.8 from a revised 53.4 in October, while new orders fell to 53 from 58. October’s first estimate of 53.7 was the index’s highest score in two years. … Underreported: China’s manufacturing sector expanded for the ninth consecutive month in November but ran into headwinds from weaker trade and employment, a survey showed on Tuesday. The official purchasing managers’ index was unchanged from October’s 18-month high of 55.2, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said. “That indicates the economic outlook has started to stabilize after reaching a high level and the recovery will become more steady,” said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council’s Development Research Center who comments on the PMI for the federation. The sub-indexes for new export orders, imports, employment and quantities of purchases fell in November from October; the input prices sub-index jumped to 63.4 from 56.9. The PMI reading compared with a record low of 38.8 plumbed in November 2008 in the depths of the global financial crisis.
December 1, 2009, 7:00 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 9.10 to 1103.70, as the FTSE 100 index was up 84.89 points, or 1.6 percent, at 5,275.57, DAX up 108.50 points, or 1.9 percent, at 5,734.45 and CAC-40 in France up 75.10 points, or 2 percent, higher at 3,755.25. Earlier in Asia, most major benchmarks rose by 1 percent — Japan’s Nikkei index was the standout, closing up 226.65 points, or 2.4 percent, at 9,572.20. The Bank of Japan was holding an unscheduled meeting, partly in response to the sharp rise in the yen as being under pressure to do more to counter potential deflationary pressures in the economy, partly stemming from the sharp rise in the value of the yen. After the markets closed, the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.1 percent and announced it would provide short term loans to banks totaling 10 trillion yen, or $115 billion. Though nothing emerged to directly counter the rise in the yen, which prices out Japanese exports and makes imported goods much cheaper, the markets remain on the lookout for any intervention by the Bank of Japan to buy dollars or sell yen. Further strength in the yen will cause intervention. Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 291.65 points, or 1.3 percent, to 22,113.15 and South Korea’s Kospi rose 14.12, or 0.9 percent, to 1,569.72 after the government said exports rose from a year earlier in November for the first time in 13 months. Australia’s benchmark added 0.4 percent, Singapore’s market was up 1.1 percent and China’s Shanghai index rose 1.3 percent. … Fears about Dubai’s debt problems eased after the emirate’s government investment company said it was in talks to restructure a large chunk of its business. Apparently, traders continue to assess the potential fallout of the Dubai World debt default — and seem increasingly convinced that the impact won’t be as drastic as had perhaps been thought at the end of last week — the major global equity markets continue to find support. … Oil prices rose to near $78 a barrel as Iran’s detention of five British sailors kept the market on edge. Benchmark crude for January delivery was up 44 cents at $77.72 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract climbed $1.23 to settle at $77.28 on Monday. The dollar rose 0.6 percent to 86.79 yen while the euro was up 0.5 percent at $1.5074. … Maintain Standard & Poor’s 500 support at 1040.80, and resistance at 1113.52. Test to resistance likely this week as index wants any excuse to move higher even as fundamentals continues to fail action. Don’t fight the tape, go with the flow, while keeping short fuse. Reduce laggards, take profits and remain flexible.
November 30, 2009, 4:00 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 4.14 to 1095.63, as the market drew support from an improvement at factories. The Chicago Purchasing Managers index, which measures Midwestern manufacturing, rose to 56.1 in November from 54.2 in October. New orders rose and employment improved, but production expansion slowed. Meanwhile, crude climbed $1.40 to $77.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after being mostly flat for much of the session. Prices have been trading between $75 and $82 a barrel for the past month or so, hitting $33.87 a barrel on Dec. 19. Indeed, prices rose , following the dollar’s weakness against the euro. … Investors, satisfied for the moment that credit problems in the Middle Eastern city-state of Dubai weren’t a sign of spreading troubles, turned their attention to consumers, whose spending is the biggest driver of the U.S. economy. Rising unemployment would make shoppers uncomfortable about spending during the holidays, while the government’s November unemployment report, which is due Friday should give better picture. The National Retail Federation, a trade group, said Sunday it still expects holiday sales to slip 1 percent compared with last year. …
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index formation suggests a negative divergence remains in place with “oversold” conditions a strong possibility. Daily volume continues to be on the decline, which is typical around the holidays themselves. Heavier volume would be necessary for the index to confirm direction. as December gets underway. The Advance/Decline line ($NYAD) is near its extreme “oversold” zone, suggesting a bounce is in order soon. Up/Down volume ($NYUD) was light, not confirming Friday’s drop, thus difficult to determine if any material distribution is going on or if the market was just being manipulated by few participants. Dartline suggests — the few gangsters in the pile. TRIN jumped to a very high extreme, but again taking into account the “half-staffed” trading desks for the holiday and we can’t put much weight on the move here. Finally the NY McClellan Oscillator, which is a moving average spread of Advancing/Declining issues, is around “neutral” but interesting has a possible Head & Shoulders Top look to it. More often than not, classic chart patterns that develop on technical indicators can be a “red flag” to price action itself. In this case, the H&S Top suggests the possibility of further weakness. Some key levels to watch this week include 50-day simple and exponential moving averages near 1074/1070 area. Also the Fibonacci retracements at 1081,1071,1061 representing the 38%, 50%, and 62% of the November range. Thus, key on Dartline’s First Look for tracking short term direction.
November 30, 2009, 6:30 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures up 0.50 to 1088.90. Asian markets jumped about 3 percent or more after tumbling on Friday amid fears Dubai’s debt problems could lead to more financial instability and were a sign of hidden trouble elsewhere in a still fragile world economy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average climbing 264.03 points, or 2.9 percent, to 9,345.55. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 687.00 points, or 3.3 percent, to 21,821.50 and South Korea’s Kospi added 2 percent to 1,555.60. Both those markets tumbled nearly 5 percent on Friday. Meanwhile in Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 was down 0.4 percent, Germany’s DAX down 0.7 percent and France’s CAC-40 down 0.9 percent. All the noise relates to Dubai. The beleaguered emirate wants a six-month reprieve from paying some of its roughly $60 billion debt. Forget that number — more like $150 billion is closer to the truth. Indeed, Dubai’s stock exchange dropped nearly 6 percent on Monday. The issue — Whether the issue would create a global contagion? No. Too much free money to cover all bets as the world continues to de-leverage, while world government print more paper. European banks have exposure, while insignificant among most Asian companies. As for U.S. banks with international footprint — limited. … Oil prices rebounded to near $77 a barrel in Asia as panic about the global fallout from Dubai’s debt problems abated. Gold lost 3.5 percent to $1,172 an ounce. Benchmark crude for January delivery rose 38 cents to $76.43 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.91 to settle at $76.05 on Friday. … Maintain Standard & Poor’s 500 support at 1040.80.. Change resistance to 1113.52 from 1181.10. Allow the noise to play out, while using it as a buying opportunity.
Today's Game Plan
stocksmirf
The S&P index generated a negative signal for the third week in a row. It also formed a bearish outside month/lower close which marked the worst monthly performance since the March 2009 low. Sector weakness was noted in Energy/Commodity related amid Dollar gains (Coal KOL -4.5%, Gold Miners GDX -3.4%, CRB Index -2%, Steel -1.6%, Oil USO -1.4%, Oil Service OIH -1.6%, Energy XLE -1.8%, Materials XLB -1.6%, Ag/Chem MOO -1.7%). Technology also provided downside leadership (Semi SMH -3.1%, Disk Drive -5.2%, Computer-Hardware -3.9%, Software -2.4%, XLK -1.7%) along with Reg Bank -2%, Casino -2.4%, Broker IAI -1.9%. Limited gains were noted in Biotech BBH +0.8%, Retail RTH +0.3%, Credit Card and Treasuries. The worst stretch of action for the market in 11 months leaves it extended on a short term basis but price patterns will remain weak unless the S&P can clear 1077/1078 and the 1081 area early next week. Support below the low/congestion (1071/1069) comes into play in the 1066/1064 area . Maintain primary level of Standard & Poor’s 500 index to the 1020 – 1099 range, while using mid-term support at 1094.35.
Are you smart enough?
stocksmirf
Relying on free information to make your investment decisions is like lighting a match in a hurricane. So why waste your time with worthless noise and empty promises? Based on performance, without a doubt, Beat the Dart has the most reliable trading desk supporting U.S. markets. At $50.00 per month, you have access to the very best. FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2009, net performance gain was 97.13 % in its BTD portfolio with a closing market value of $11,327,143.82. The SPM+Game Theory matrix rating on all trades was 89.44% on 191 full circle transactions. The net performance of Wall Street’s top 50 investment firms posted a weighted average gain of 3.12% on at least 30 full circle transactions per firm in the survey. Each transaction is completely transparent and documented.
Current performance can be reviewed from http://www.beatthedart.com/
stocksmirf
SPM+Game Theory PRO will be launched February 1, 2010, 7:00 am EST.
Are you ready?
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More balanced going forward. A new Liquid Momentum (LM) filter allows us to track volatile stocks and underlying options, which is generated from a proprietary algorithm that places heavy emphasis on superior relative strength versus the market, trading patterns and currently applied technical data points. A fancy phrase for stock manipulation. As expressed many times, SPM should be right 100% of the time and based on the recognizable patterns it should be more to that value. Options will be used to take advantages of these events. We will be testing three different LM filters to add to SPM.
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Pattern Recognition Option (PRO)
Pattern Recognition Option (PRO) represents the next level of refinement to our proprietary SPM+Game Theory matrix. Using our currently constituted Subjective Probability Model and the Game Theory algorithms, we have isolated 23 distinct conditions that represent antecedents to consequential assessment guides or patterns. When expressing the additional filters, we are able to solve mathematical anomalies by identifying the greatest common divisors. Once such a particular sequence occurs and set apart, the next event has predictable conclusions. By applying the full scope of SPM+Game Theory matrix to the Pattern Recognition Option, a new value establishes a probable entrance point and conclusion when best to exit the trade. Incorporating the new configuration, the model will be identifies as SPM+Game Theory PRO.
Since the recognizable patterns are not abundance nor can be timely predictable ahead of our pattern recognition milieu, the amount of likely investment or trading candidates are limited. However, the results would be mathematically greater than applying SPM+Game Theory matrix alone. From the beginning — October 5, 2006 – our restricted human intervention investment system has no equal with a net performance rating of 84.59% on 13,110 full circle transaction to November 30, 2009. Applying PRO to the matrix it is technically possibly to meet our goal of 100% accuracy.
We plan to have SPM+Game Theory PRO full operational on February 1, 2010.
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Looking good for February 1, 2010 launch.
We included 2100 individual data streams for the stocks represented and the new PRO filter is acting properly. By Friday we should have our projected complement of 4500 stocks in the model. Based on our initial analysis, BTD should be closer to 90% correct. Naturally, any issue not in our database will carry N/R – no rating. However, many of these N/R numbers maybe ‘in-play’ purely on a technical basis, and should not effect performance.
stocksmirf
December 24, 2009, 12:25 pm EST … Special Notice …
BTD and Jellybean Trader will suspend public operations until February 1, 2010, effective December 23, 2009, 4:00 pm EST.
The purpose is to upgrade our proprietary SPM+Game Theory matrix . Even though our cumulative transactions performance for the 11 months ending November 31, 2009 was 83.73%, while the top 50 investment firms rated at 70.90%, SPM is capable of flawless results. We have continued to believe that our collective algorithms were designed and calculated to perform at the maximum 100% accuracy level. Since day-one, back in October 2006, when BTD first published its results, the only objective was to demonstrate that a limited human intervention system had incomparable values over conventional research and investment analysis. During the entire period, we will be implementing and measuring in real time BETA FIVE new or modified filters. Maintain these functions and continually publishing on-line would be economically prohibitive. Accordingly, all open positions will be closed out before December 23, 2009, 4:00 pm EST.**
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** If you are considering holding open positions to EXIT DATES or current analysis, please advise. BTD and Jellybean Trader will offer projected conclusions.
… Main reason for the changeover: Pattern Recognition Option (PRO) addition to matrix.
Pattern Recognition Option (PRO) represents the next level of refinement to our proprietary SPM+Game Theory matrix. Using our currently constituted Subjective Probability Model and the Game Theory algorithms, we have isolated 23 distinct conditions that represent antecedents to consequential assessment guides or patterns. When expressing the additional filters, we are able to solve mathematical anomalies by identifying the greatest common divisors. Once such a particular sequence occurs and set apart, the next event has predictable conclusions. By applying the full scope of SPM+Game Theory matrix to the Pattern Recognition Option, a new value establishes a probable entrance point and conclusion when best to exit the trade. Incorporating the new configuration, the model will be identifies as SPM+Game Theory PRO.
Since the recognizable patterns are not abundance nor can be timely predictable ahead of our pattern recognition milieu, the amount of likely investment or trading candidates are limited. However, the results would be mathematically greater than applying SPM+Game Theory matrix alone. From the beginning — October 5, 2006 – our restricted human intervention investment system has no equal with a net performance rating of 84.59% on 13,110 full circle transaction to November 30, 2009. Applying PRO to the matrix, it is technically possibly to meet our goal of 100% accuracy.
We plan to have SPM+Game Theory PRO full operational on February 1, 2010.